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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jay M. Harris who wrote (5213)	4/25/1998 9:43:00 AM
From: MikeM54321	Respond to of 10921

Might as well pile on with the bad news. At this point, on the bad news may be a contrarian indicator. Maybe the semiconductor equipment cycle is due for an upturn since we all seem to be so negative! >BOSTON, Mass.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--April 23, 1998--Companies that supply equipment to semiconductor manufacturers are expected to average flat revenues at best through the end of next year, signaling a longer-than-projected industry downturn, according to a new study by investment banker Adams, Harkness & Hill, Inc. A detailed analysis of the industry contained in the Semiconductor Capital Equipment Industry Review concludes that the Asian financial crisis and a glut in the world supply of DRAM memory chips both will continue to discourage microchip makers from making capital investments. The report says most semiconductor equipment company stocks are valued too high to make good buys right now. It also makes detailed projections about semiconductor consumption, equipment demand, technology buys and a company-by-company valuation of the entire semiconductor equipment industry. "The industry is in a retrenchment period," according to the report's lead author, Adams, Harkness & Hill semiconductor equipment analyst Frederick L. Wolf. "Our outlook over the next 18 months is bearish." Semiconductor equipment stocks are seen by some analysts as a bellwether for the entire technology sector because equipment sales can signal a coming semiconductor recovery. The Adams, Harkness & Hill report said the Asian crisis has discouraged companies from making capital investments. Many semiconductor manufacturers are located in Asia, which accounted for more than half of semiconductor capital spending in 1997. Japanese companies, which accounted for fully 25 percent of semiconductor capital spending last year, are unlikely to invest much in equipment before the year 2000 because of the economic uncertainty. "With DRAM prices still going down and the financial problems in the Far East, particularly Korea, I'm becoming less and less optimistic that the chip companies in the Far East will build new fabs," Wolf said. The most recent upturn in the industry was early last year, as companies spent money to upgrade their existing factories with equipment that produces chips with super-thin circuit widths of 0.25 microns. But the Adams, Harkness & Hill report said companies are unlikely to spend as much on equipment over the next 18 months because of a continued DRAM overcapacity and a tenuous outlook for the foundry business in Taiwan, an emerging player in the industry.< MikeM(From Florida)

To: Jay M. Harris who wrote (5213)	4/25/1998 1:34:00 PM
From: Dr. Bob	Respond to of 10921

Thanks, Jay. Waiting for your posts is almost like waiting for groundhog day. I take it this is the equivalent of seeing your shadow, and there will be 6 more months of winter for the semi equipts? Bob

To: Jay M. Harris who wrote (5213)	4/25/1998 3:38:00 PM
From: shane forbes	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10921

Jay: That mirrors by thoughts exactly. Software and deep in the backbone networking are my plays. Shane.

To: Jay M. Harris who wrote (5213)	4/27/1998 8:09:00 AM
From: Clarksterh	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 10921

Jay - you would have substantially more credibility if you didn't present a warped story: Intel is now at .25 micron on all wafer starts. This doubles the chips per wafer from .35. Consequently, INTC requires NO incremental capacity to drive YOY unit growth 100% in Micros. Wrong. This completely ignores the fact that they moved from P-MMX to P-II's in the process. And of course P-II's use, at a guess, about 50% more transistors. Thus, their unit capacity growth has only grown about 30%. PC market segmentation (sub $1000) is commoditizing the chip sets in this important new growth market (37% of new units vs 5% last year) You left out an important relevant fact for this statistic. It only applies to consumer PCs. Not to business machines. And business machines are still the vast majority of the market, and they are, so far, largely ignoring the new low priced machines. Also, if unit growth increases substantially, which it did in the latest numbers I've seen for consumer PCs (January), then it might even be good. The lower prices are substantially increasing demand. Bottom line: It may be that the PC market is going through a transition, and that is worrisome. But the case is nowhere near as dire as the bears would have us believe. Clark

To: Jay M. Harris who wrote (5213)	4/28/1998 7:18:00 AM
From: Mason Barge	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10921

<<Intel is losing share in the low end>> I thought your post was very well-reasoned, but actually, I read yesterday that Intel is actually recovering market share in the low end, as of right now. There is almost certainly going to be a price collapse similar to DRAMs for low-end MPU when AMD brings its full capacity online. And who of the larger MPU fabs has the cash to weather the storm? Yes, if you want guaranteed money, watch AMD for price rises and go short.