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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: James F. Hopkins who wrote (17273)	4/25/1998 1:10:00 PM
From: Barbara Barry	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 94695

Jim, That "succers" rally is exactly what WE need!I hope none of our cyber pals get wounded with going short for too long.Bill may get his 9600 or maybe my conservative 9300...I did say 547 on the oex.Here's the bloody kicker,again...If time doesn't cooperate...same thing I pointed out to those who thought they could make a killing in expiry week.May,June July puts???Some people don't realize you can easily lose 10%/day just with the time errosion. One more plausible scenario that would hurt even more people...just what we need,another idea!<VBG>...Last week 100+ drop could be a little fake out,then a little rally going into May,then another little fake out to really get everyone crazy.This notion could really hurt the call and put folks who are not lucky and nimble.We could have this little game continue for another couple months.Now if interest rates or something else unexpected happens...all bets are off.One big sell off like Oct. probably won't terrify people since they will think the same bounce MUST happen....more for our side!;) Just trying to consider all the "options"! Regards, Barbara

To: James F. Hopkins who wrote (17273)	4/25/1998 3:04:00 PM
From: Berney	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

Jim, I generally agree with your views and head/tail approach. I have no illusions about BAMBI. It started as an experiment and still is. Bill's approach looks for the big moves. BAMBI simply attempts to quantify the current trend. I started it the end of Jan when there were a lot of comments on the thread that believed that the rally that started in mid-Jan was a suckers rally. I didn't think so and decided to go out on the limb, saw in hand. BAMBI is based on the weekly MACD, which itself is reactive in nature, not predictive. Take MRK as an example. It closed Friday at 116.50 and issued a bear signal. That is little consolation for the folks that bought in the middle of the uptrend in the 120's. But, BAMBI has been reflecting MRK as a "3" (i.e., trend possibly changing for over a month). But, it has been showing T as a "5" (clear bear trend) for about the same period, and its been a flat-line on price. BAMBI is looking at the market in a similar fashion as your head/tail approach, but looking at the DJIA as the head and the S&P 500 as the tail. I recognize your position that there are many companies in the S&P bigger than those in the DJIA. That's understood as I'm just trying to get a general picture. When the overall trend is clearly in my favor I propose an aggressive 100% approach. But, now I propose a 50/50 approach (being selective and conservative), as a negative trend has not been clearly reflected, but it is clear that this great bull run is getting weak. But, again, this is an experiment, so BWDIK. Berney