Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Disk Drive Sector Discussion Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: shane forbes who wrote (3045)	4/25/1998 8:47:00 PM
From: Stitch	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9256

Shane; <<Thus, similar to DRAM, when I say stabilize I do not mean prices going up but instead price declines will start returning to the long term rates of decline.>> I admit I knew what you meant but thought I would give you a chance to explain. I have a graph here from Hambreacht and Quist I wish I could just post but it shows industry ap taking a huge dump starting in Q1-97 through Q3-97 of a magnitude of about 26%. Its a graph of the total asp of WDC, QNTM, and SEG. I suspect Q4-97 and Q1-98 would show a linear progression in the drop. From Q3-96 to Q1-97 ASPs were actually rising. Remeber, this doesn't account for increased capacity models but runs across the product lines of all deleverable models. Also, this summarized published retail prices. <<To be optimistic once the Asian currency devaluations stabilize (and I hope and pray that (with the exception of China) this has now happened) the maniacal reductions are running their course.>> We are in a situation where we need to start differentiating currencies. I expect the Ringiit to crater to 4+. China is an intrigueing question. Japan is very scary. Best, Stitch

To: shane forbes who wrote (3045)	4/26/1998 2:35:00 AM
From: Pierre-X	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9256

You said: I think the bulk of the other (non-MPU) reductions came because of the Asian devaluation No. What are the main components of today's typical seg-zero PC, in order of % of total cost? (Not including the monitor, since most of them don't) 1. HDD ~$120 2. CPU ~$120 3. MB+L2 ~$80 4. OS ~$75 5. CDROM ~$55 6. Casing ~$35 7. DRAM ~$30 So, big bad numero uno is HDD. In retrospect the HDD bomb was already ticking long before the Asian forex blowup, which only served to turn the knife in the wound. During 1997 we fell from 10 cents/MB to 4 cents/MB; even further by some measures. And, O my goodness, DRAM is seventh, after the case? How ignominious. Now, you certainly can't say the currency crisis had a whole lot to do with the DRAM implosion; like HDDs, it just added insult to injury. Ironically, the Asian bomb may help the DRAM biz in the medium term by swacking cap-ex at the Asian DRAM fabs. You know it's bad when Intel has to send first-aid money to Korea. Wonder how MU feels about THAT ... <g> CPUs have been squeezed since Intel found out people aren't lusting after P-IIs. Surprise -- most consumer types don't do heavy high-resolution photo and video processing. Doh! And the MBS-OAS valuation engines havent been included in Quicken yet. <GGG> Just about the only item in that list that hasn't changed much in price is the OS. Hmm. Must be because MS was able to skillfully outmaneuver all those dastardly PC OS competitors with a superior product! Bottom line: the currency shindig didn't bring about the current state of affairs. But it DID make it worse, for some folks. God bless, PX