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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Haim R. Branisteanu who wrote (17314)4/26/1998 4:45:00 AM
From: Investor-ex!  Respond to of 94695
 
Haim,

The whole idea is to figure out at which time this process is toward it's final stages

gold-eagle.com

Foreign hands are, pretty much by definition, weak. This forward-looking piece was posted over three months ago. I like this analysis. The author's probable catalyst for a US downturn:

The real problem for the United States starts when Asia collapses, and the last dollar has exited Asia. At that time, the vast flow of money stops entering the United States, and now starts to exit. Consequently, the current account deficit will likely exceed $250 billion, which must be financed. In addition, between $1 to $2 trillion dollars will move back to Asia. These funds will be needed to finance losses and rebuild.

Question is, are we near that point now? Japan's recent bond sales would seem to indicate a definite maybe.



To: Haim R. Branisteanu who wrote (17314)4/26/1998 10:19:00 AM
From: Barbara Barry  Respond to of 94695
 
Haim,
Excellent point...but we haven't been able to pinpoint "when" very well.As far lagging indicators...aren't they all lagging?<VBG>Except maybe our "gut" indicators.
I especially noted your point about the "weaker hands"...I hadn't really thought about that impact..thanks.
Regards,
Barbara