Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Winstar Comm. (WCII) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Alejandro who wrote (5453)	4/25/1998 10:09:00 PM
From: Jason Cogan	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 12468

Ali: While I can't claim to have tremendous insight regarding the specific nature of Winstar's expansion plans, I can claim some insight about the company and the communications landscape. I try to be a student of the various offerings being initiated, in both wireless, fiber, long distance, data, and local loop competition, as well as the ongoing developments in technology. Wireless local loop is a very real possibility. But it still remains a possibility, with outrageous revenue targets being forecasted. Nobody has yet convinced me that a large company will go wireless for their central communications need. There is always a level of uncertainty associated with wireless, especially when compared to fiber. Do you realize how many consumers it takes to reach the 5 billion in revenue you are forecasting? If the average communications bill was $20/month on average, not inconceivable in the future, that would still represent over 20 million consumers. One sixth of the US workforce. Seems like an awful big market share for an upstart company, especially given the competitive telecommunications space. Telecommunications is an ever changing landscape, complete with technological as well as business risks. And we still don't know how profitable these revenue streams will be, if and when they materialize. Competition is everywhere. The existing phone companies have a tremendous installed base, with a seemingly endless method of extracting throughput from their copper wire. ADSL and XDSL are after all innovations for increasing copper throuput. Photon swithcing is another development that will further entrench the dominant position of fiber. Cable modems promise direct delivery of content, with significantly increased speeds. Communication solutions are being pursued in many different industries by many different companies. Most of them are profitable. Winstar is on the verge of bankruptcy, and owes close to 1 billion dollars in earnings to bondholers before stockholders will ever see a penny. Given this competitive landscape and unenviable financial position, why are you so willing to hand over your hard earned money? Why are you so certain that Winstar will succeed? After all, they haven't succeeded at anything yet, other than losing a lot of stockholder money. Just a thought. Regards, Jason Cogan