To: Jenna who wrote (8522 ) 4/26/1998 9:33:00 AM From: LastShadow Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 120523
Some thoughts on Y2K In terms of trading opportunities, most of the current emphasis is on the exorbitantly priced consulting firms, and most of the media hype is on the potential disasters that may befall a company that isn't ready. Most well managed companies have only a few problems. Every application my groupd designed in the last 10 years incorporated a 4 digit date field, and every application we interfaced with we fixed as we went along. The only issue left for us to resolve was replacing NC controlled machine tools with boards that rectified that problem. A lot of companies haven't tested that yet, but there are a lot fo fixes out there now available. Those companies are going to have decent earnings for the next few years and worth watching - I will post a list in a month or so that are worth following. In terms of software testing and recoding, ther are the large consulting firms that will leverage their short term skillssets into some cash, but without doing something other than 'maintenance' beyond that, their value will decvrease substantially. Companies that are doing little to get ready will have problems, of course, but there is also going to be a way to fix that. And that is with people. The systems that now automatically process the date fields will need to be manually overrode. That means temporary clerical folks with minimal skill sets. Companies like JOBS ( or is it JOB?) and other 'for hire' agencies will benefit tremendously as the clock rolls closer. Those companies recruiting and training cobol programmers (many took early retirement, so we are looking at a broad spectrum of the employable workforce here) and data entry personnel are going to be making huge profits, and growing substantially. When you look at a problem or potential problem, there is always going to be a solution, although not always an elegant one. And that solution is going to beg the question of where to trade. So California has a major earthquake and concrete companies price shoot through the roof. Florida has a hurricane and Home Depot and plywood makers rocket. Deserrt Storm makes Rayethon's stock zoom up because of the hype over their Patriot Missile system, regardless of its effectiveness. Clinton leaves office and the media and legal profession will have to regroup... At any rate, my point is that there are threads running through society and business and life that are worth looking a little deeper into. Extend the scenario, find the underlying needs and contingencies. Thats what makes the tech sector so readily observable. Its in the news, its commented on, its monitored. Just a Sunday morning thought. lastshadow