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Technology Stocks : Winstar Comm. (WCII) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jason Cogan who wrote (5459)	4/26/1998 2:29:00 AM
From: SteveG	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 12468

In late, and just catching up. Since I have often called for a reasonable, respectful bear story, I assume I might be in part responsible for your conjuring. (Unfortunately, my ouji board seems pretty rusty. Maybe my psychic fiber connect exceeded it's bend ratio somewhere and we got you as a result of the bit loss). Reasonable means a basis in fact, and you shoot from the hip without doing any due diligence. You have yet to earn my (or most anyone here's) respect, because you come off smug, yet continue to showcase your blatant, loudmouthed ignorance. If you did this just once, I could excuse it as inexperience.. But your continued IGNOREance of facts presented to you, as well as playing sloppy with other easily determined factual details (even of the "financial" sort that you claim some knowledge in), results in the unmistakable classification of you as an ignorant blowhard (regardless of whether your bend is as a WCII or anti-WCII cheerleader).. <..WINSTAR DOES NOT HAVE 1 BILLION DOLLARS IN THE BANK Read the 10-K if you don't believe me. I'm not making this up. On page F-7 of the 10-K, it shows cash as $417 million. Not $1 billion. You guys keep getting this confused...> Poor silly Jason, do you think a document 4 months old is CURRENT? Do you know what Bloomberg or Dow Jones news is? You could have even read this on Yahoo! WCII recently completed over $650MM in debt, convertible debt and preferred financing. The debt and converts were oversubscribed, and are STILL trading up in the gray markets (if you open an account at a full service brokerage, they could call their desk and confirm this for you.) WCIIs anticipated capex (do you need a definition here? Cause if you do, and have any real interest in learning rather than simply spouting off about things you are clueless about, please let any of us know and we will be happy to splain it to you) for each of '98 and '99 is $300MM. That leaves them with $450MM for making more strategic acquisitions (are you at all aware of the ones made so far?) and/or progressing their buildout that much faster/farther. <..Net net, common stockholders are in the hole $500 million (1,200 - 700 for those of you who'd like the math. Why do you think Yahoo's Price to Book Ratio is NA. Tough to calculate a ratio when you have negative book value...> You clueless nit (this is simply descriptive). Didn't you read Bernard's analogy of building a bridge? Yet you keep harping on this same errant point which is irrelevant in valuing businesses like early stage telecom companies. That's why God made DCF models for accountants and CFAs to use. But I guess they didn't teach you that (or more likely, that you skipped or slept through) in whatever type of school you attended. <..Essentially, if they closed up shop right now, not only would you get nothing, but you'd each owe over $10 per share. That's what I mean by negative book value...> Besides being again sloppy in both your understanding and presentation (another of your "points" which is factually false), if stockholders DID owe money, who would it be TO? The institutions that just lined up, outbidding each other, to lend another ~$650MM at 7%? You clearly think we are lame and you can teach us a thing or two. I guess you also think these buy side guys are pretty stupid? So you think most of the sell analysts (and look for more names to join in here soon) all of us and $650MM worth of QIB buying (again - show some self respect and ASK if you need a definition - before shooting your mouth off half-cocked again) have been duped and you willsave us with your insight and steel-trap due diligence? Most anyone reading knows the real story. <.. None of this is reflected in the current owner's equity section...> It IS in the 10K, it was in the recent debt documentation, and it is accounted for by the 3 thorough DCF models available (Grubman, Vogel and Governali) with more DCFs to follow very soon. From these various bottom up models, we are looking at $50-100 by year end, and from top down valuations (ignoring TCGI's valuation, and WCIIs comparative success in this regard, doesn't make it go away) we could see $150-$250. <..If you guys like, you can always start another round of cheerleading later...> We could tolerate your arrogance if you deserved even a little of it. I for one would be GLAD to pay due to someone who could provide some fresh accurate downside insight. But your empty, ignorant arguments and weak unconnecting jabs make it clear we still await a respectable, responsible bear/ bear story. Of course, perhaps we should be grateful for ANYTHING in this regard the cat drags in.. Well, as much as we'd LIKE a good bear side, a number of us gave you and yours a look over and realized it for the waste of silicon it is.

To: Jason Cogan who wrote (5459)	4/26/1998 3:10:00 AM
From: wonk	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 12468

Mr. Cogan: As other long time participants on this thread will attest, I rarely wade in. (for the regulars, the last time was with the swamp things)(To SteveG, you beat me to the submit button). While it is not my intent to be rude, your analysis is superficial, sloppy and would garner a failing grade in 1st year finance. 1. Cost per consumer of $20. sloppy Winstar is targeting businesses. The nationwide average cost per employee for telecommunications service is approximately $75 month + or -10%. 2. 10K of 417 million cash. superficial If you had done any kind of research at all you would know Winstar just recently completed a 650 million offering at very favorable terms. I would agree that the stock market has some ridiculous valuations based on market cap, but lenders don't buy into that cr*p. One does not get the kind of funding just closed and at favorable rates, unless the company is EXECUTING. 3.< I frankly have no idea how to depreciate wireless equipment, and I'm sure the Winstar boys don't either.> Grade F You're analyzing a company and then claim you don't know how to determine the fair value of its existing assets? Furthermore, you then you resort to an ad hominen attack against the company's financial staff in a superficial attempt to distract from your own ignorance. If you have some factual basis to allege gross incompetence or fraud, let's hear it -- or shall we just turn the mirror around. 4. < ...why don't we spend a little time on meaningless things like financial statements.> Sophmoric When valuing a company, the financial statements are where you start. It is also the tip of the iceberg. Pick up any text on valuation, 3 techniques are prominent: comparable sales, discounted future earnings and discounted cash flow. One example of market comp has already been presented to you (Teleport). I suggest you look at the whole sector. One can't do DFE w/o earnings so one is left with DCF. That's what Steve is giving you with Vogel's analysis. DCF is the most extensive and detailed valuation technique. Yes, multiple assumptions are made and slight changes in specific assumptions can have significant impact on the valuation (its called sensitivity analysis, for first year finance folks). However, if you have not done your own analysis and can specifically cite errors in other peoples work with hard, reputable and verifiable data, then the ethical course is to keep quiet until you can. The bottom line is that this is a start-up executing a nationwide play in the telecom business. After you have done your homework, come back and tell me how much capital is required, what is an appropriate debt/equity ratio (financial leverage) and weighted average cost of capital on a year-by-year basis, when on average should it turn EBITDA positive and what is a reasonable revenue ramp for competent management. When you can intelligently talk about competitive advantage (and whether this company has it) industry climate, future trends, and a host of other boring and inconvenient facts, then we can discuss share price.

To: Jason Cogan who wrote (5459)	4/26/1998 9:01:00 AM
From: Steven Bowen	Respond to of 12468

Jason, "WINSTAR DOES NOT HAVE 1 BILLION DOLLARS IN THE BANK" Wow, capital letters even. "If the average communications bill was $20/month on average,..." Damn, what are these companies able to get high speed internet access for? I thought just the high speed access would be more than $20. "I must say I was very impressed with your first post, but then you went off and started name calling again." I just call 'em as I see 'em. Stupid is as stupid does. So now you admit WinStar has $1B in the bank. Makes your above statement look stupid in those all caps, doesn't it. You're also admitting there are huge holes in your DD if you haven't looked at any news more recent than 4 months ago. Study up then call me back. "Other assets are questionable, ..." Sure are. Tell me what value WinStar is carrying the largest network of national broadband wireless licenses in the nation on their books at. Since most assets starting valuation is cost, and WinStar received most of their licenses for free, most licenses are probably not even reflected on their balance sheet. They used to show a value of $10M or something for licenses that could easily be worth a billion. I don't even feel like digging out a 10-K to argue with you anymore. You've refused to answer my questions or respond to my arguements in my prior posts, so I don't know why I waste my time on yours. Bottom line is, I don't want to convince you to buy WinStar. I'm sure nobody here cares if you do. I don't even care if you want to short it. I think the stock can go much higher. You don't think it's worth 38. So be it. That's exactly what makes a market. We had a couple folks like you here almost one year ago. Kept shorting and shorting, telling us what a lousey company this was, and what a terrible investment it would be. Since then my account is up by over a factor of 50 times going long WinStar, and those two have shut up for a year now. I'd expect the same from you a year from now. So if you still see nothing you like here, move on to the next stock. Or if you've got the guts, short it. At least then it would be obvious where you're coming from.

To: Jason Cogan who wrote (5459)	4/26/1998 8:25:00 PM
From: limtex	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 12468

Jason - 1. WCII is seeling to businesses and no residential. And BTW what is the average business monthly RPL today - average. 2. They have customers now and are taking on additional business customers every day. 3. Presumably these customers are satisfied that their communications can go wireless otherwise WCII ( and every other wireless carrier) would have any customers at all. 4. Do you really think that the consumer cares whether his communications is carried via copper cables, fibre or wireless? If so where is the evidence for this and I'm not referring to isolated incidents of customer dissatisfaction. Regards, L