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Strategies & Market Trends : Bob Brinker: Market Savant & Radio Host -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: marc ultra who wrote (4743)	4/26/1998 10:43:00 AM
From: Boca_PETE	Respond to of 42834

MarcW: re:<wild speculation ... reminiscent of tulipmania ... now we see it in spades.> Yes, we see some speculation, especially in those internet stocks, but is it fair to say speculation is wild and rampant when it's confined to just a few areas ? I suspect that Brinker suspects the economic slowdown late 1998 could lead into a "profits recession" where increasing P/E's that could be justified by a further fall in interest rates won't be offset by the effect of falling earnings (the "E" side of the P/E Ratio). Should this scenario unfold, investments Long Term Bonds would appreciate in value from falling interest rates, but the stock market could fall by more than 10%. To justify rising interest rates, I'd think there would need to signs of an overheating economy. Am I missing something ? I don't see any such signs. P

To: marc ultra who wrote (4743)	4/26/1998 2:36:00 PM
From: stock bull	Respond to of 42834

Marc, my impressions from hearing Bob over the past few weekends is that he is now sitting on the fence between a continuing "weak" bull market and a major correction/bear market. IMO, Bob is now expressing some major negative opinions of the market. It's like a parachute jumper going to the plane's door and hooking up for his jump and waiting for the jump light to come on. I think Bob is waiting for one more element of this timing model to go negative, and he will issue his sell signal. (I assume that the bull/bear ratio being at 70+ is now negative as is the market's valuation, plus the mania going on is some of the internet stocks.) Right after I post this message, I'm putting on my chute and getting to the plane's door. (VBG). Stock Bull