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Technology Stocks : How high will Microsoft fly? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: wiley murray who wrote (6226)	4/26/1998 11:35:00 PM
From: Moominoid	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74651

Off Topic? Can you share what indicators you use and those that are most effective for you? I am trying to put together a system that works for me,but need some input from traders like you who are doing well.I am studying Elliott Wave,Candlesticks, and about 10 leading indicators as I trade only options short term. Any help will be appreciated. I think most of the TA indicators like Elliott Waves are just nonsense (opinion of a maybe biased econometrician). I have used a group of moving averages 5,13,21,34 days. This is fairly useful but normally misses the actual turning point. If you only go long it will reduce your volatility but not make you money on an individual stock. However, it could make you money if you either go short when it says to get out or put the money in a better stock rather than on deposit. You'd have to follow it very systematically still to make money. I have developed recently an alternative approach that uses some time series statistics. It picks turning points - either heading up or down. The signal tends to appear right at the point or just before. Sometimes there will be false signals and sometimes no warning of a turn - it's a statistical method and so doesn't always work. It also can't pick up truly unexpected news obviously. It works best the more liquid the stock is and the more volatile - Of stocks I follow it has worked very well with Chase Manhattan and Apple Computer. With Microsoft it is a little more difficult to interpret but works pretty well. It hasn't worked that well with National Semiconductor (though you would make money over the last year). Interpreting the signal is pretty much an art. So what I'm doing currently is following several stocks I own using the indicator day by day and making decisions on this basis. I post my suggestions on the relevant threads here so people can see I'm not making this up after the fact. I'm not prepared at this stage to explain how it works but would be happy to give some historical examples in terms of just the numbers produced. David