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Technology Stocks : Dell Technologies Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Lucretius who wrote (39017)	4/26/1998 2:00:00 PM
From: Chuzzlewit	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 176387

Lucretius, I think you may be misreading an important factor. Historically, bonds have yielded about 2% over the inflation rate. They are currently yielding about 3.75% over that rate, so there is significant discounting of a perceived increase in inflation. Second, oil was about $22/bbl not that long ago, and while the decrease certainly did much to tame incipient inflation, I don't believe anybody expects to see a return to those prices anytime soon. OPEC periodically goes through a lot of chest-thumping about lowering quotas and raising the price of oil. But the fact is that cartels break down. Member countries with cash flow problems cheat. Garrett Hardin wrote a piece in Science in 1969 or 1970 called "The Tragedy Of the Commons". It was a brilliant piece of economic analysis written in such a way that that you didn't need to know anything about economics to fully understand it. If you read that piece you will quickly grasp why OPEC's attempts to significantly bolster the price of oil will eventually fail. As to reading the sign, I make a habit of regularly doing just that, and I see none of what you are talking about, with the exception of steep increases (at least temporarily) for natural gas. The recent decrease in non-farm payrolls may obviate the perception that wage increases may start to play a role in inflation. To date, Greenspan & Co. have pretty much been playing a pre-emptive game. TTFN, CTC

To: Lucretius who wrote (39017)	4/26/1998 4:25:00 PM
From: JRI	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 176387

Been out of the country for a while all, glad to catch up on the posts... Hey Kemble, way to go !(nice profile in Fortune)..Nice looking home and garten too! Lucretius....a couple of follow-ups to your statements.... <<did you read the OPEC article this weekend??? They WILL cut production again further hurting SE asia and adding to our inflation.>> No one believes OPEC can control themselves anymore.......Surely you are aware of OPEC's unsuccessful attempts this decade to control production limits........OPEC is not the force it was in the 70's...I believe they only control 40% of supply (vs. 70% in the 70')........ Venezuela (who supplies the most crude to the U.S. and will be flooding the world markets with supply in the next two decades) are notorious cheaters on these "agreements" (not including Mexico, and others)....Iraq will probably be selling a lot of oil within next 1-2 years......and it is good bet that oil use in Asia (the biggest reason for the continuing oversupply in markets) will continue for at least another year or two...you know the reasons).. So, I think an "oil inflation" based argument over the next 1-2 yrs. doesnt stack up. (Are you Jim Rogers in disguise?) A more compelling argument would be to look at wage cost rises vs. productivity gains....... <<I believe this mkt disaster is what will cause unemployment and deep recession as people cut spending because of fear over not being able to retire as retirment accts are wiped out.>> Lucretius, what happened last October? Individual investors bought in droves after the Asia meltdown...............It was the "big guys", so-called top experts, etc., who were cautious for a long-time after the October drop.(see Barron's year-end roundtable issue...) I assert that a psychological war has been won in the average investor's mind concerning stocks Vs. bonds vs. cash....Stocks have a huge psychological advantage right now...This is a result of many good years of neighbors, friends, and family making a lot of money in this market, and even more buying the dips... The "short-termers" are not the individual investors....Individual investors are, en masse, showing a good disposition to buy and stay long (while most mutual fund managers trade way too much), and individual investors have seen enough 15-20% minicorrections, and subsequent higher highs, that like the boy who cried wolf, it's going to take more than that to get your average guy out.....IMO, It is going to take a big disaster (like a war, or a Y2K debacle) or a long-term economic slowdown to really shake investors confidence in this market..... <<Look at what happened to Japan.>> Once and for all, let us end comparisons between the U.S. economy and stock market and the Japanese economy and stock markets...Too many variables are different to make an adaquate comparison, and any conclusions that would be drawn would be major-league flawed.... (By the way, such a comparison puts you in the company of the New York Times, so I guess that's something) Could the U.S market slowdown for a while or trade sideways? Sure? That's why we are long Dell..........afterall, as the saying goes, it is a not a stock market, but a market of stocks.........Dell will continue to do well (and I predict, even thrive) in a sideways market..........money will rotate into "quality stocks".....it is then that the great results that Dell consistently produces will shine even more........Dell has become, and will continue to become a tech "safe haven" (like Microsoft, Cisco), hence the higher PE over the past year is here to stay.........This will continue, and Dell will continue rapidly higher as long as they deliver.... I really appreciate your contribution to the thread (we need all you bears) and thanx for allowing me to respond......