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To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (10699)	4/26/1998 2:05:00 PM
From: goldsnow	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 116795

Sunday April 26, 12:38 pm Eastern Time Wall Street Week Ahead - Fearing the Fed By Marjorie Olster NEW YORK, April 26 (Reuters) - Wall Street will shift its attention this week from corporate earnings to fears the Federal Reserve may soon raise U.S. interest rates. With a barrage of new economic data coming to the market, analysts will be busy trying to gauge whether the mix of solid growth and a tight labor market are creating enough inflationary pressures to spur the Fed into action. ''The situation most people are going to be watching right now is what happens with interest rates,'' said Joseph Barthel, chief investment strategist at Fahnestock & Co. The Dow Jones industrial average backtracked late last week after closing at a record high of 9184.94 on Tuesday. The blue chip average Friday fell 79 points, ending at 9064.62. For the week it lost 103 points, or 1.1 percent. Concerns that borrowing costs may be headed higher began creeping back into the market after several Federal Reserve policymakers warned recently of building price pressures. The Fed's policy-setting committee is due to meet next on May 19. Stock investors have also been watching with a worried eye as the benchmark long bond yield edges up toward the 6.0 percent level. ''If you go through 6.0 percent, that will spook the market,'' Barthel said. The yield on the 30-year Treasury bond ended Friday at 5.95 percent. The key reports for the week will be the government's initial estimate of first-quarter gross domestic product and the employment cost index, both due Thursday at 0830 EDT/1230 GMT. GDP growth is forecast at 3.3 percent down from 3.7 percent in the fourth quarter. The quarterly employment cost index, which will be closely watched for signs of wage inflation from the tight labor market, is expected up 0.9 percent versus 1.0 percent in the fourth quarter. Barthel said stocks were correcting and concerns that share prices had gone too high were giving investors pause. ''The market is sort of telling you the rally has gotten a little long in the tooth,'' he said, adding a number of internal indicators were showing a loss of momentum. Barthel predicted trading this week would be choppy again with the possibility of marginal new highs or a break below the 9000 level. Charles Payne, head analyst at independent market research firm Wall Street Strategies, said he expects the Dow to trade sideways in a 200 point range this week. ''Personally I think right now there is 80 percent chance we don't raise rates at all but it's the dark cloud,'' he said. There may be bursts of excitement in the event of another bank or brokerage takeover, Payne added. The heavy flows from mutual funds that have been a driving force in the rally are expected to slow going into May, which could also put a dent in stocks, analysts said. Other major economic data on next week's calendar include National Association of Purchasing Management April index on Friday at 10 a.m.EDT/1400 GMT. The NAPM is seen falling to 53.8 from 54.8 in March. March Personal income and spending numbers are due at 0830 EDT Friday.

To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (10699)	4/26/1998 2:22:00 PM
From: tekgk	Respond to of 116795

George, I am not smart enough to know the exact top either. However, I do see lots of early warning signs and have take prudent steps to avoid being on the train when it runs over the cliff. I have dumped my long public stock positions a while back and am currently working on lining up my private holdings for IPO or sale. Unfortunately, this takes time so I have been buying put leaps against the indexes as insurance in case the market tanks and spoils my plans. I sincerely hope that the market stays afloat until the end of the year, but my gut feel and experience tells me that it isn't likely. Companies have already started using the Euro in financial transactions. These displaced dollars will be dumped on the currency markets. I think that the Euro will be successful at least initially because of the huge war chest that has been accumulated and because of the sand bagging on the part of the Germans in the recent past. I don't think that it will be successful over the long but I am quite certain that there will be unusual turmoil in the currency markets and that its going to be a very negative factor to our overvalued stock market.