To: Pierre J. LeBel who wrote (2127 ) 4/26/1998 3:10:00 PM From: the Chief Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 8117
Hi Pierre; Here's what I said:I believe you will see that the next resistance level is not $4.00 but $3.85! If we break the $4.00 level, I do not believe it indicates any strong signal. In fact a test and failure of the $3.75-$3.85 level will send it into unknown territory. In the interim a week support level at $4.00 has been established. Failure of any of these support levels will be directly proportional to the waiting period between "events". If we have a news release above $4.00 then the $4.00 support level will strengthen. If it occurs in the $3.85 range than it will just reinforce the existing support level. You said;Chief, I am confused... Last Monday, you were saying: My forecast: Momentum downwards through to $3.75 with a recovery to $3.95, and trading at this level to next "event" Please re-read this part:I believe you will see that the next resistance level is not $4.00 but $3.85! If we break the $4.00 level, I do not believe it indicates any strong signal. ****NOTE**** "If we break the $4.00 level,....." We didn't! You said:I vaguely remember a month ago when you told me that I could never buy this stock below $ 5.00 again!!! Although I am bullish on PYT on the long-term, I still believe that the stock is overvalued on the short-term and we will see $ 3.00 or even less within the next five weeks, maybe sooner should we get a severe correction in New York. Unfortunately my clicking "from me messages" only gets me back to Mar26. I doubt that I said "never" but if you say I did, I cannot prove that I did not. (If you had also asked me whether I felt gold would have been trading at $312 by this time I would have said NO) In any event, all indications at the time were that the float had traded above $5.00 and we were on the verge of some significant announcements. Many events may percipatate the fall of this stock and all others. Japan being one, the DOW being another. I believe people like myself have lightened up on PYT for other reasons. The shine returning to metal stocks has drawn me and others away from stocks like this, because my "field" is metals, not because PYT isn't worth the selling price. Ward and you have never mentioned this in your discussions of PYT value. I don't like to give you any ammunition but if you are going to take the "overbought" position on PYT you should at least link it to the type of speculators that are attracted to this type of stock. What will cause PYT to fall in the next few weeks, if its destined to do so, is the following; 1) Further rise in commodity prices, specifically gold, copper, or nickel 2) Lack of real news (orders) from PYT 3) First quarter results of DOW and TSE major's failing to meet expectations 4) Japan's economic recovery not being believed 5) Interest rate hike in the US 6) DOW correction due to some/all the above So if you believe all or any of that is true, why would you speculate "only" PYT will be affected? Catostrophic failure is hard to argue, but it's equally hard to believe!! So in answer to your "confusion" I had made a call on the stock on the day it was trading at $4.05-$4.10, it then traded shortly after at $4.00 and headed north from there. So my forecast as you put it, was not a forecast at all. It was trying to predict the "right then" circumstances! The stock never broke $4.00 so the "call" was not relevant. the Chief