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Biotech / Medical : Agouron Pharmaceuticals (AGPH) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Steve Fancy who wrote (4151)	4/26/1998 2:50:00 PM
From: Izzy	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 6136

QUESTION: I heard a financial talk radio show host comment that "paranoia is your friend and complacency is your enemy." Any comments as to meaning/interpretation?

To: Steve Fancy who wrote (4151)	4/26/1998 6:20:00 PM
From: scaram(o)uche	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 6136

Steve: To answer one of your questions, the company is largely off my radar. So, it won't do me much good to address several of your other questions. Market share? Read Peter's comments about the analysts briefing in January and plans to hit the docs that are not among the most experienced. Market share lost to competitors? Which competitors? Market size leveling off? Patients are dying at a reduced frequency but new cases are not declining. I really don't want to get pulled into this. To do a good job, it would require a huge amount of time and research to catch up. If you want to worry, I'd focus on issues that scare David (class-specific toxicities) or on the Chiroscience MMPI program rather than on insider sales (which look like normal "distribution of life after a degree of success" stuff to me). Johnson et al. have proven, to me, that they are concerned about their shareholders. I can't answer your questions. I haven't got a view of the future. IMO, the market is telling AGPH management that it wants to see what is next, and that superb Viracept results just aren't enough. This sort of rationale can sneak up and bite you...... AGPH has now started to put bucks in the bank while also pouring them into novel R&D. As market cap remains unchanged or goes down, the bank account goes up and the pipe gets wider, deeper. Pretty soon, you look up and find ONE HUGE FRIGGING BARGAIN. What are investors going to do when they see active steps materializing to improve Viracept margins and see that it's selling at an annualized clip of $500 million (which it will hit next quarter)? What would it take to get me back in? That's irrelevant. AGPH has evolved into a different type of company than I usually go for. But, if I start to get any clues that 3340 has a manageable tox:benefit profile, I'll perk up. Peter & Company aren't sitting still in HIV PIs or in MMPIs, resting on laurels. They're in there duking it out for the next generation of molecules. Roche? Curious. Johnson has clearly said that he'd like to pull a Lilly. Sorry to hear that you've ridden two issues into the ground. If you see any substantial grounds for worry about a third, bail. If a stock doesn't behave like you want it to behave, that doesn't count. Cheers! Rick