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To: mph who wrote (54)	4/26/1998 4:05:00 PM
From: Michael Berkel	Respond to of 109

The quickest and safest way to lose a fortune is to short stocks and more specifically to follow the SI thread "Roger's 1998 Short Picks". All the hot short picks of this thread did exactly the opposite of what the shorties thought they would do and all these stocks went through the roof. No matter if it was Citrix or Yahoo or Amazon or America Online or Avant! or Zona, you could have made tons by trading in the opposite direction. The stocks that people tend to short are those that seem overvalued but nobody can fight the trend and if Wall Street loves a stock, then people are prepared to pay 10.000 times sales or earnings. The bubble doesn't need to burst necessarily. Perhaps it is not a bad idea to read Roger's sucking picks and to invest your money in all his pans. The next best disaster recipe is buying put options in Momentum stocks. Your timing will always be wrong and people will still love these stocks when your contract has already worthlessly expired. Ultimately the most sensible thing to do is trying to find those companies where the Momentum looks best and to jump on the bandwagon as soon as they break out, whatever the shareprice or the insane p/e valuation may be. IBD's A strength is a good indication. I'd like to find good Momentum Indicators and if you happen to know one, I would really appreciate the input. Happy Trading! Mike