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Technology Stocks : How high will Microsoft fly? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Chris who wrote (6233)	4/26/1998 4:24:00 PM
From: FJV	Respond to of 74651

Chris, Nice to get a rational response without the flame. I agree that posting dissenting opinions for the sole purpose of agitation is juvenile, and that wasn't my aim at all. It was simply to provide some balance to the thread, giving lurkers another point of view. The following is a synopsis of the TA which led me to the decision to buy puts just before the earning announcement on Wednesday: WEEKLY TA READING AS OF 4/24: -RSI- peaked a couple of weeks back at 86, weekly closing price at 93. Price of 98 7/8 Wednesday was in divergence to a lower RSI - OVERBOUGHT AND SHOWING WEAKNESS -Stochastics- %K crossed %D to the downside this week, with both readings over 80% - OVERBOUGHT AND SHOWING WEAKNESS. -Williams %R- crossed 20 to th upside this week for the first time since late January - OVERBOUGHT AND SHOWING WEAKNESS. -CCI- 160 as of 4/24 close - indicates that there can be a long way to go to the downside before oversold. -ADX- at 61 and beginning to drop, creating a peak over 50 - signals a change in direction. On a daily basis, the close at 98 7/8 on Wednesday was 14% above the 50 day moving average. MSFT has never in its history exceeded its 50 dma by that much without a short term pullback. Cycle work shows a short term bottom for the market some time during the next trading week. The combination of all these factors indicated that a short term put was a pretty safe bet. So far, the analysis has served me well. I will be out of this position by Wednesday's close at the latest, as I believe that the market will rally during the first couple of weeks in May, with tech stocks outperforming the broader averages. I trust this adequately explains my position. Good Luck, Franco