Update on the Iran-Iraq Situation:
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Good Luck,
007
Global Intelligence Update
Red Alert
April 27, 1998
Iraqi Shiite Leader's Murder May Trigger Crisis in the Gulf
Sheikh Morteza Ali Mohammad Ebrahim Borujerdi, Ayatollah and leader of
Shiite Muslims of Iraq, was assassinated on the evening of Thursday, April
23. Iraq is a predominantly Sunni country. The Shiite community is
concentrated in southeastern Iraq, in the strategic marshes of the Shatt
al-Arab and in the city of Basra. This region has been fought over by Iran
and Iraq for years and was ceded to Iraq following the Iran-Iraq war. The
Baghdad government has been deeply suspicious of the loyalty of this
minority and has been particularly vigorous in imposing security on the
region. The treatment of the Iraqi Shiite community has been of great
interest to the predominantly Shiite regime in Tehran. Thus, the death of
the Ayatollah has potentially significant strategic implications.
According to Tehran, the assassination took place in the southern city of
Najaf, while Borujerdi and two companions were returning home after prayers
at the shrine of Imam Ali. The assassins were able to escape. The
Iranians immediately protested to the Iraqis, who replied that "the
intelligence service of a foreign country was behind this attack because of
Sheikh Morteza Ali Mohammad's well know religious ideas and proper
conduct." The statement also said that security forces were searching for
those who perpetrated the "regrettable" attack.
On Friday, following no further action from Baghdad, the English language
daily "Iran News" and the Iranian news agency IRNA both started charging
that the assassination was the result of actions by the ruling Iraqi
regime. Both reported that the killing "once again reveals the true nature
of Saddam Hussein to the world public." The reports also dismissed Iraqi
claims that "foreign hands" were involved as an attempt to "safeguard
itself against the consequent crisis of the killing." Reports also stated
that: "Sooner or later the sinful hands of the Iraqi government's agents
involved in the assassination would be revealed." The report concluded by
saying, "The Iraqi president should know that the actions which he
initiated years ago have been driving the Iraqis to their death beds and
unfortunately, whenever there is a move to save Iraqis from their miseries,
an assassination or a similar action by the ruling Iraqi regime brings the
situation back to zero."
Thus far, the extreme responses to the killings have come from the press,
and no major leader has yet stated publicly that a crisis now exists
between Iran and Iraq over the killings. But the Iranian press does not
stray far from official views in matters of foreign affairs, and it is
clear to us that the press is now floating the idea that Iran holds Iraq
responsible for the killing, and that the situation between Iran and Iraq
has been returned to the status quo ante--intense hostility bordering on
violence.
We have argued for several months now that the core issue in the Persian
Gulf has been Iran's emergence from isolation. This has now clearly taken
place. We have also argued that one of the driving considerations for Iran
has been to reverse the outcome of the Iran-Iraq War, a war that continues
to be a burning symbol of humiliation in Iran. Moreover, recovery of the
Shatt al-Arab waterway and the marshes from Basra southward would represent
a matter of substantial strategic importance to Iran, as it would
dramatically increase Iran's ability to project power along the western
littoral of the Persian Gulf. It would also severely diminish Iraq's
power. Therefore, while the United States is wary of dismantling Iraq,
Iran is drawn to the idea by history and geopolitics.
The Iranians have been laying the legal and moral basis of action against
Iraq for several months. For example, a few weeks ago, Iran charged that
Iraq had kidnapped a group of Iranian fisherman who had been shipwrecked
along the Iraqi coast. Iran has carefully noted intensifying Iraqi
security operations among the Shiites in the south. With the most recent
killing, Iran has clearly set the stage for a legitimate, defensible
crisis, without yet stepping over the line.
A subtext of this has been the crisis caused by collapsing oil prices. The
recent agreement in Riyadh and Vienna have clearly failed to raise oil
prices. At most, they have stabilized them at a level unacceptable to
Saudi Arabia, the key player, and one whose economy cannot endure such low
prices. While there is intensive discussion going on as to how to raise
oil prices, the one sure way is to knock Iraq off the market through
military action. Iraq has recently been releasing reports through the U.N.
indicating that their production is much lower than expected, thereby
trying to deflect interest in eliminating that production altogether.
Nevertheless, with oil prices falling below acceptable levels, and Saudi
finances weakening, an Iranian operation against Iraq, while posing severe
long-term dangers to Saudi security, has its short-term charms. Thus, Iran
might be able to recruit badly needed allies for an Iraqi adventure, if it
wants them.
The Iraqis are protesting that they were not behind the killing but that
some foreign force was involved. The Iraqis seem to be saying that the
Iranians themselves may have acted in order to create a provocation that
justified action. It is unlikely that any other foreign force, including
the United States and Israel, would have cared. While it would seem odd
for Iraq to want to precipitate a crisis with Iran, if Iraq has already
concluded that the crisis is inevitable, then killing Borujerdi made sense,
as it increased internal security in the strategic southern region by
denying the Shiites a key leader. Thus it seems to us that the Iraqis have
already decided that a crisis is coming and acted in anticipation. Indeed,
political maneuvers in the north among the Kurds and deployments of Iraqi
forces all seem to indicate the potential of conflict in the South.
Iran now has in its hands all the excuse it needs to justify a
confrontation with Iraq. Iran has stated that a crisis must follow this
killing and that its relations with Iraq have returned to zero. They have
lost the element of surprise, as well as the cooperation of the Americans,
at least for the time being, but they have the superior force on the
ground. Moreover, they have the ability to use the crisis to create their
dreamed of security framework in the region. Finally, a confrontation
would force a suspension of the political infighting in Iran between
Khatami and Khamenei's supporters.
Borujerdi's murder has laid the foundation for action against Iraq, should
Iran want it. Iraq could arrest the killers and end the crisis. Or they
might let it play out to wherever Iran wants to go. Iraq is feeling cocky
these days. Iran sees a window of opportunity. The ingredients for
conflict are all here. |
