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Strategies & Market Trends : Bear! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Alex Greenland who wrote (13)	4/27/1998 1:53:00 PM
From: Terrapin	Respond to of 271

Excellent job Alex! Good luck on finals! Always good to see a few formulas floating around. <g> BTW, did your X include reinvested distributions? GGG! But seriously, I completely agree that the new investor will see diminished returns - but I'm also convinced that the current average investor doesn't really pay attention. This seems to be uninformed money. That's bad for stability because they are more likely to panic leading to sudden steep drops but until we see a major cultural shift away from saving we may not see the traditional bear-type market. To tell the truth, I kinda hope we do see a short 1-2 year bear market [followed by another bull, of course] because A) I'm ready for it -mostly- and B) I'm young enough to recover and profit from it. What I fear is that the baby boomers will be in the middle of retirement, taking money out of the market for a period of 15-20 years just when I am putting kids through college and worrying about my nest-egg. I am already lamenting the prospect of trying to shuttle my kids around the roads of this nation as the boomers clog the highways in their enormous sport-utility-luxury-vehicles. Then again, they will need a lot of health care... <G>! John

To: Alex Greenland who wrote (13)	4/27/1998 2:25:00 PM
From: Michael Burry	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 271

Today's a great day for seeing which stocks are vulnerable and which stocks are fairly resistant to a sell-off. Jones Medical is holding up well today at 29 1/2-30. I still wouldn't buy it until around 25 (which makes it around 20 in enterprise value given its cash holdings, giving you a quality up and coming pharm at a significant discount). Drugs are relatively resistant to bearish sentiment. Phillip Morris and US Tobacco are both trading down significantly, and both now offer high yields - >4% and >5% respectively. These really should be rather recession/bear resistant, but if the market hits them anyway, it just gives you a better yield. Especially MO has a low payout ratio given the size of the dividend. Mike

To: Alex Greenland who wrote (13)	4/27/1998 11:13:00 PM
From: Steve Joyce	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 271

Alex, No need to ever apologize for formulas......i personally love them. I couldn't agree with you more....the rate of inflows must keep pace with the rise in the market and vise versa for the inflow theory to be correct. i haven't really thought about it too much but I'm sure if you were to construct a regression model using mutual fund inflows as the predictor and lagged by some time period I would love to see the results. As for the mentality of the investing public.....I can only speak from what I see. I see a lot of uniformed investors being guided by unsophisticated advisors. I am not knocking brokers by any means.....I was one for a brief time. Most people seem comfortable with the "defer it now, invest for the long haul.....why try to time the markets" idea that most common salary deferral plans are based on. People will be hard pressed to find a mutual fund company (or manager) that has retirement plan money under management that has not been taking action against market timers that move often in their retirement plans. I am not saying in any way that this is company specific, it is actual an industry issue that has been coming to a head lately. People that are uninformed and buy the big picture theories tend to follow the rules. Just some thoughts.....for discussion......not always thoughts that I back 100%.... SJJ

To: Alex Greenland who wrote (13)	5/3/1998 6:21:00 AM
From: Alex Greenland	Respond to of 271

Here are some preliminary results for 1993-end of 1997(monthly numbers) %change sp500 Inflows Total Market Cap Inflows% of total based on second month mktcap 10,316.70 6008321.677 0.168936385 1.639946713 8637.6 6106854.951 0.141604251 -0.115249028 11869 6099816.86 0.190997412 1.875523178 11723.9 6214220.339 0.192005376 -1.741061515 9174.2 6106026.94 0.146484037 2.569723817 9383.3 6262934.969 0.151427661 -1.059868233 9843.8 6196556.111 0.158463949 0.249432097 12177.9 6212012.31 0.190535284 2.887990403 9161.7 6391414.63 0.143921853 -0.401606426 13446.1 6365746.298 0.207704642 1.695282692 8966.7 6473663.693 0.140672556 -1.536985717 14696.7 6374164.407 0.229300769 0.552079499 18371.6 6409354.862 0.277570975 3.266299199 14416.6 6618703.568 0.224930595 -3.162986593 6567.4 6409354.862 0.108425964 -5.496942554 11267.6 6057036.307 0.180230939 3.214782074 11756.8 6251756.824 0.186161531 1.017615116 7674.8 6315375.647 0.124638668 -2.497650941 9236.1 6157639.607 0.145175583 3.319139399 14124.5 6362020.25 0.216307302 2.637686818 8092.1 6529830.419 0.126992783 -2.415622292 9132.9 6372094.38 0.141282565 1.446701607 14124.5 6464279.572 0.227991905 -4.162930703 8092.1 6195176.093 0.127720258 2.269892186 9132.9 6335799.911 0.140687881 2.459105661 2970.1 6491603.925 0.044316247 3.241921769 5337.5 6702056.646 0.077068917 3.335735612 5421.6 6925619.536 0.076394136 2.472850453 8536 7096879.75 0.115942703 3.739353634 7204.5 7362257.181 0.095424604 2.549251157 13840.2 7549939.607 0.179204502 2.293955291 13111.4 7723131.847 0.168503328 0.750482453 12669.6 7781092.596 0.157820788 3.171112372 9106.8 8027839.786 0.112954796 0.429760022 14266.2 8062340.232 0.17031356 3.895792681 16332.6 8376432.293 0.190663644 2.265313519 28,131.80 8566184.746 0.319285449 2.85631434 21,773.10 8810861.909 0.244850082 0.925664881 20,680.80 8892420.963 0.229236737 1.452581591 25,543.20 9021590.633 0.282766444 0.130023098 25,006.00 9033320.785 0.271388324 2.001283266 14,116.80 9214103.122 0.15134984 1.228133237 5,374.80 9327264.585 0.059917114 -3.82612298 17650 8970391.971 0.195345945 0.723054675 17260.7 9035252.81 0.181511463 5.248044966 13365.9 9509426.94 0.137620381 2.131827945 16675.8 9712151.561 0.159719742 7.501030166 11295 10440662.98 0.111052452 -2.584064714 28516.4 10170869.49 0.262654161 6.746177121 17495.7 10857014.36 0.159408024 1.090590164 9971.9 10975419.89 0.095122967 -4.485043568 15760.4 10483167.53 0.143018197 5.119530304 20302.9 11019856.47 0.173827404 5.989756177 16332.6 11679919 0.132824533 5.277895931 26505.1 12296372.97 0.202782544 6.297206604 13697.5 13070700.98 0.107005286 -2.065164601 25269.1 12800769.49 0.191652854 3.000280299 19758.7 13184828.46 0.152479935 -1.718633885 18121.8 12958229.53 0.134713159 3.811542189 15552 13452137.91 0.115167235 0.384346859 13503840.78 0 14.56 15470000 average 0.162188174 median 0.158142368 std deviation 0.055951475 Alex G.