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Technology Stocks : Disk Drive Sector Discussion Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: shane forbes who wrote (3082)4/27/1998 7:03:00 PM
From: Tom Simpson  Respond to of 9256
 
Shane,

I agree with you that network/communications chips and hardware will keep on chugging. The growth curve of the creation and transport of bytes just keeps accelerating.

Re storage...Its hard to sort out and parse "stuffing" from "JIT" and "demand" effects, especially given 2 distinct distribution channels to 2 distinct markets. But I don't believe demand, as measured by final point consumption, was the major factor. Its just that when you have too much inventory, psychology requires that it be because there isn't enough demand. Otherwise you have to look in the mirror, and who wants to do that?

I think there are a couple of things to watch closely. One of them is the tussle between IBM, Fujitsu, and Seagate over the highend market. SEG got a wakeup call there and the open question is whether they are out of bed and running yet. Another is who is going to create a drive for the sub 500 machine, and make a buck doing it. It has to happen because there is going to be a huge unit market for it. I would think Quantum would have their Bigfoot guy locked in a closet being creative, but who knows.

Like you, I wouldn't count WDC out either. Its still a very nice looking balance sheet, and a lot less expensive than it was 6 months ago. They are also pretty fast on their feet.

Best Regards.......Tom