To: Ms. X who wrote (2624 ) 4/27/1998 1:50:00 PM From: superdow Respond to of 34811
Jan, thanks for your thoughful response... I am most interested in the applicable indicators from the perspective of my mutual fund investments (basically fidelity contra and growth and income)which represent the lion's share of my market assets. It would be nice (i.e., very profitable) to be able to get out of the market before or as a correction starts and back in as things turn around (DUH!). Of course, it seems to me that mistakes in market timing in the case of mutual funds are particularly risky because unlike a missed opportunity in an individual stock, there are no other buses leaving the station, if you aren't on board at the right time. i.e., if you get out of a fund at the bottom of a correction or the market goes up before you get back in, you can't really make up the missed opportunity. At any rate, I'm rambling, but I assume that for adherents of dorsey-style point and figure charting, in the case of a reversal of the nyse bullish percent from above 70 to below 70, when other short term market indicators have also turned negative, liquidation of mutual fund assets would not be unwise even for an investor with a long-term perspective...such a reversal most likely means that the market in general is heading lower (but I do recall reading that there have been cases where the dow has held stable (because it only represents a handful of stocks) while the nyse bullish percent has reversed and declined substantially. OH DEAR! I just looked at the market averages, dow down about 2, nasdaq 3.3. One bad thing about mutual funds, you can only liquidate as of the close of the day. For example, if reversal of nyse bullish percent is reported tonight, I couldn't get out until end of day tomorrow after the dow has possbily dropped another 500 points.