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To: dougjn who wrote (10269)4/27/1998 2:08:00 PM
From: Ramsey Su  Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 152472
 
Doug,

quite to the contrary, Asia is looking worse. This interest rate fear is just the reported reason and I seriously doubt that the Fed would do anything.

If they do hike interest, the strong US$ will push Japan over the edge. A lot of the "reforms" in Japan which is not receiving much attention is the opening of their financial markets. Many of the big Japan INCs have already opened US$ denominated accts. It is also easier for Joe Japanese to invest outside of Japan. If there is a rush out of the yen, the destabilizing effect of a weak yen is certain to hurt China.

Korea's debt problem is much higher than the IMF bailout amount. Massive layoffs are starting. An idol workforce with nothing better to do are going to be taking their demands to the streets.

If China, Japan and Korea cannot convince investors that they are enroute to recovery, all other Asian economies are of no significance whatsoever.

Ugly ugly ugly.

Greenspan is a smart man. He has not made any alarming public statements about Asia but I would be surprised if the tone is not stronger in the privacy of the Fed Reserve Board meeting room.

I think today is just a wake up call. More to come in days ahead.

Ramsey