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Biotech / Medical : VVUS: VIVUS INC. (NASDAQ) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: (no name provided) who wrote (7500)	4/27/1998 3:15:00 PM
From: Mark A. Stang	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 23519

Kafka: No one expects much coat-tail riding for at least a couple of months. But everybody does expect the negative impact of Viagra on VVUS to be at its zenith right now. I think it's incredible that VVUS is getting new patients right now at all (perhaps just the hard core of nitroglycerine users?) In the meantime, the discrepancy between the drops in new and refills (assuming your data are correct) is very interesting. Sorry Kafkaesque, but we're not trembling yet.

To: (no name provided) who wrote (7500)	4/27/1998 3:24:00 PM
From: FruJu	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 23519

>New 4609 down 31% >Refills 4290 down 8% >Total 8899 down 29% Huh... these don't add up. New 4609 down 31% => Previous = 4609/0.69 = 6680 Refills 4290 down 8% => Previous Refills = 4290/0.92 = 4663 Total = 11343 8899 = 11343 * 78%, or a 22% drop (not 29%). Still bad, but not quite as bad E>

To: (no name provided) who wrote (7500)	4/27/1998 6:27:00 PM
From: VLAD	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 23519

Regarding script #'s The refills of 4,290 from 4,393 looks good. Down only 2.3%. This tells me that MUSE has a loyal patient base. New scripts down sharply to about 1/2 of what it was before Viagra came out. Who didn't expect this type of drop? I expect new script #'s to continue dropping for one or two more weeks before recovering. Viagra had over 113,000 new scripts last week compared to the 36,000 from the prior week. The highest MUSE new script # ever was 17,500 during its initial release. 36,0000 + 113,000=149,000 and assuming that IMS data accounts for about 65% of actual scripts then the actual number is about 229,000. If lets say 20% of these new scripts were from dissatisfied prior MUSE users. This leaves 183,000 and assuming Viagra works on 50% of this pool, this leaves over 90,000 men who will need alternative treatment. If 1/2 of these men decide to give MUSE a crack then this gives us a potential for 45,000 new MUSE scripts to be written as a result of the first 2 weeks of Viagra exposure. BTW a pullback of 7/8 on a day when the NASDAQ is down almost 50 points ain't all that bad. VLAD