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To: Al Serrao who wrote (18191)	5/31/1998 3:25:00 PM
From: Judy	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 50167

INTC INTC is coming into the trough of its cycle. Technically, INTC should easily see 67ish and the dippers will be there buying and the stock will retrace up some. If the rollout of Deutches in June/July stalls or the market gives it a cool reception, INTC could well do a complete Fib retracement back to the high 50's to fill an old gap. The following negative factors loom in the horizon: FTC examining how/when to file antitrust suit against INTC, although the FTC may not achieve majority concensus by next week, the likelihood seems high that they will reach a concensus to file; INTC to announce significant price cuts in its Pentium II chips the week of June 7, another hit to near-term earnings bottomline WITHOUT another source for revenue growth. MU will most likely not have anything good to say for this quarter, my sense is Kurlack is already writing his press release ... DRAM stinks for the next couple of quarters, Asia will be flooding the DRAM market, yada yada yada, and the semis gets hit. INTC just delayed Merced until 2000. Now this has ramifications. To put things in context, recall my convos with Crossy (I forget on which thread) when it appeared that INTC would break out from 85ish ... that Celeron was academic since INTC's entry to cheap chips was too late and for cosmetic effect of offerring a full chip spectrum, that Deutches' successful rollout in June/July was needed to stem the downtrend ... for the next quantum jump, Merced would not come out until mid-99. Thus delay of Merced's rollout until mid-2000 may now accentuate the trough, Deutches becomes even more important. The delay of Merced was not unexpected ... does not make fiscal sense for INTC to bring it out until there is strong demand; this delay of INTC's entry into the 64-bit architecture for high-end server markets and workstations will cut SUNW some slack in the next few months. There is a foodchain of techs that will be impacted by this delay, and the individual stock threads can do the assessment.

To: Al Serrao who wrote (18191)	5/31/1998 3:40:00 PM
From: Judy	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 50167

TXN Al, quick look at the stock, it's too nice a Sunday to spend posting at SI. TNN should have a technical bounce above its 200-day ema and hover thereabouts until the fundamental picture becomes clearer. It is phasing out of the DRAM business but will still get hit when MU gets hit, although the downside will be back to bsl at 50-52. However, if its DSCP business disappoints the market, TXN becomes a fundamental short on the next break of the the 200-day ema. Don't hold your breath of the modem chipsets has or will sold for '98. Witness what happened to ADI. When I say a stock is trading as expected, it is relative to events expected to unfold over the timeframe during which one may consider a positional trade. That a stock may pop up or faint 5-10 points in a few days is what I call a flip, not a positional trade.