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Strategies & Market Trends : Tech Stock Options -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ViperChick Secret Agent 006.9 who wrote (41590)	4/28/1998 12:09:00 AM
From: FJV	Respond to of 58727

E Ragazza, They roasted and fried me alright. I'm sure they all love how it turned out today. <g> What's odd is that I didn't attack the long term prospects of the company (I'm neither that stupid nor am I a visionary), only the very short term picture. I suppose a more hot headed Paisano would go back there tonight, gloat and then blow them out of the water, ma atsa no da waia doo tingsa. Besides, some of those boys were wound so tight - you know the type- couldn't get laid in a women's prison even if they had a fist full of pardons. Alora - regarding my view of the market. My long post about the market doing the most to confound the highest number of people was written only half tongue in cheek. If you reread it (I'm impressed that you actually printed it out), you will see that amidst the sarcasm is my true prediction about how things will go. I thought there would be a 1/2 hour bounce this morning which obviously didn't happen. The rest of the day I had pegged. The normal TA work I do is really not too accurate in predicting broader market indices, especially when the market is rotational. I am an admirer of Jerry Favors' work and my gut says his short term cycle call is right on. He called the ST top a couple of weeks ago within 10 points of last Wednesday's high. We should see a nasty move down over the next day or two, convincing most bulls, bears and everyone in between that it will be the beginning of a more protracted correction (for bulls) or the BK (for bears). I believe that this current move, no matter how severe, over the next few days will not last. The ECI number on Thursday may end up bullish for bonds. The BOJ may not continue bolster Japanese liquidity by selling our paper. Who knows the catalyst? What I do know is that the first few weeks in May are usually seasonally bullish - especially for techs. New retirement money will become available, and just when we all think that more blood letting is inevitable, the worm will turn and the market will fake us out yet again. Doubts that the Fed will tighten resurface as we either approach or exceed new highs in May. But a funny thing happened on the way to the FOMC meeting. Greenspan was hoping that this little leak to the WSJ today would spark a large enough selloff in the market in order to obviate the need for a preemptive strike. If the market experience a 7-10% correction by Mid-May, he and the other politically motivated types could then argue successfully to the rate hawks that a rate hike was unnecessary, and they would probably carry the day. If, however, the market recovers prior to the meeting, they will have no choice but to not only tighten but to intimate that future actions may be necessary if the economy doesn't cool sufficiently to forestall inflation. It doesn't take a genius to see how the debt and equity markets around the world would react to the above scenario. He's in a tough spot. Politically, I don't believe he can afford to forestall a rate hike until summer. Congress will be in recess stumping for reelection. Could you imagine how AG would be received during the next session if he blind sided them with a rate hike without the opportunity to defend his actions in Congress. This guy is looking for a de facto lifetime appointment. That wouldn't be the way to do it. Bottom line, I believe we will see the highs for the year during the next month and after some choppiness this summer, the bear market will begin in earnest this fall. BWDIK. Stata buona, mi cara. Franco