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Gold/Mining/Energy : Alta Gold -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bruce McGaughey who wrote (606)	4/28/1998 1:41:00 AM
From: bob oserin	Respond to of 749

OFF TOPIC: I just struck oil!!! Check HEC thread!!! BOB O

To: Bruce McGaughey who wrote (606)	4/28/1998 1:50:00 PM
From: ahhaha	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 749

Nothing predicts the future. The only thing that can be done is to observe the past in order to establish the state of the system. Elliot Wave is such an observation. You never know where you are when the wave pattern is developing. You do know where you are when the wave cycle has completed. You know a new cycle is to begin, but you don't known either the degree of the initial thrust, nor do you know the direction. The EW is a characterization of first order Gaussian random action to move along the minimal path between two points. Since the process is stochastic, the path is never a straight line because that isn't minimal in probability space. This action is also similar to the abstract action of the move from fear to greed. Money fuels the action and emotions control the amplitude of the component sub-waves. You'll find the same patterns in diverse areas like coin tossing, stellar novae, and stock charts. These processes are sometimes referred to as martingales. Random processes mean that you can't know what is the next time serial event. The Strong Random Walk Hypothesis says that you don't even know when an EW cycle has completed. It asserts that even if the local series is regular and stable, the system is open and vulnerable to exogenous shocks which completely change the system state. I can only say that whereas that is true, it is also true that the amplitude of the shock is always finite. This closes the system so that n-th order derivatives always exist. An appeal to a larger system thus retrieves the coherence of the EW interpretation. Trend lines are never vertical. Recently the NIKKEI completed a 3 month EW five count downside with an upthrust down trend line break. The break has fluctuated back down and is at a critical point. Failure to hold would mean the EW wave was not an exhaustion of the major down trend and a completion of an EW five wave downside since 1995, but it was only the first count of the fifth major 3 year downside count. So either it has completed a major 5 count or it is in the process of finishing the fifth count. In the latter case the three month wave was only a first sub wave; there are two more to go before major wave completion. You could interpret this as failure of the perception that what Japan has planned for fiscal stimulus will work. If the wave is completed, then it could be interpreted that regardless of the stimulus package, the Japanese market is cheap and the dollar isn't. You guess which way it will go and if your conviction is strong based in part on other facts, you take a position. You don't know to what extent or which direction it will go. You just know you're at a juncture. The junctures are the position taking points.