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Technology Stocks : Western Digital (WDC) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: BoNg-N-BoNg who wrote (9189)4/28/1998 6:38:00 AM
From: shane forbes  Respond to of 11057
 
WDC conference call:

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[Overall: Though this quarter really hurt because of continued aggressive pricing and time to qualify 2.1 and issues involved with non-qualification of the last TF products, they are making rapid progress towards MR, are enjoying very good yields in MR, see continued enterprise business growth, have shored up their balance sheet and industrywide for the first time in a long time see "some signs of improvement" in the overall DD industry. Management is "cautiously optimistic" going forward and Haggerty mentioned that they were in the "latter stages" of the cycle recovery.]

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(1) Opening Comments

- Being stung by "Prolonged industry cycle" and "product transition" issues

- Aggressive pricing continues GM down to 4.4%

- Industry Conditions: "Oversupply" now - expects "lessen"ing over the next few quarters, sees "some signs of improvement" in both enterprise and desktop, but sees increased competition in enterprise area. "Cautious optimism" overall tempered because of "aggressive pricing". Getting mixed reports re: PC/Server demand but recent reports about PC growth have been encouraging, likewise with inventory levels in the industry.

- "Substantial improvement" made in 3 key areas: Asset Management, MR technology, enterprise area.

- Asset Management: "modest" channel inventory reduction, healthy "finished goods" reduction of 36 million, 460 mil. convertible debt (= 19.3 mil of shares if and when converted) + credit line usage (?) (53mil) = LTD of 513 mil, used proceeds to shore up cash position to 578 mil. cash. Current ratio now 1.93 and (Cash + A/c Rec'bl)/(Current Liab.) = 1.52 (healthy numbers).

- MR technology: 40% of units shipped, expect to be 80% MR by June (?) q, expect no TF to be shipped in desktops > June q. Getting "excellent yields", "peak efficiency", "highest yields" (missed words).

- Enterprise Area: 5th sequential quarter of higher units/revenue/operating profits, Headcount at Rochester increasing 40% YOY, MR yields "very very storng", 9.1 Gig, yields "exceed TF" even though this is at early ramp.

- Does NOT plan to be the price leader

- Opearationally: By Sept. sees 95% of shipments being new products (introduced in last year) based on MR, 2.1 G/p shipping to all "blue chip" customers but 1 and that is expected to qual soon, shipping qual of 2.8 G/p to 4 OEMs, expects to be "very competitive" at all aereal densities going forward, admitted on 2.1 "qual. time somewhat longer because this was first high volume MR product", enterprise 9.1 G shipping to 9 OEMs and qualified at 7 more.

- Sees need to concentrate on 4 operational areas going forward: Working down Inventories, Desktop production efficiencies, Enterprise business growth, MR technology. Presumably WDC's success or failure here dictates how well they'll be doing going forward.

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more later...

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Shane.



To: BoNg-N-BoNg who wrote (9189)4/28/1998 7:14:00 AM
From: shane forbes  Respond to of 11057
 
WDC c. call continued:

(3) Questions:

(a)OEM business revenue decline was larger because of the longer time to qualify the 2.1 product (first MR product) and issues involved with last TF products - they were not qualified

Enterprise Sales: > 10% of revenue

(b)Op exp: up slightly next q or 2 - greater R&D for enterprise one reason

GM: "some modest improvement" in Q4 "though clearly not anywhere close to where we'd like to see them"

Bottom Line: Because of "aggressive pricing" "envisions no improvement here pre-tax

Units: Sees OEM growing back, will not participate in "unprofitable" market share areas.

(c) Industry channel: saw channel "drop slightly", drop in finished goods as well, still admits "too many weeks out there", once they bring this down "hopefully things will get better"

Aggressive Pricing: if someone has inventory then sees aggressive pricing to get rid of the inventory, once "inventory reduces" with "some time lag" prices will improve

(d) Yield: "MR conversion has gone well"

Compaq Build to Order model effect on WDC inventory: sees none because WDC is JIT already.

(e) ASPs: pricing was "more aggressive" than expected, with new OEMs and new quals sees "improvement in ASPs going forward"

Product Mix: <= 2.5 G: 40%, >= 4.0 G: 38% no further breakdown.

Head count: no layoffs necessary - natural attrition

Drives for sub 1000 - "not going to tip our hand" on progress here, aiming for '$85' drives.

(f) Fibre Channel: later when customers deem it important

Endgame 3-6 quarters out: WDC advantages - time to market, quality, services, very strong OEM relationships, + a few more things (mysterious tone of voice!!!)

(g) 2.8 G/p shipping in volume this q: "on target" and "on time"
Expects 3+ G/p to be shipping as well.

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more later...

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Shane.