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Strategies & Market Trends : Investment in Russia and Eastern Europe -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Thomas Haegin who wrote (79)	4/28/1998 1:56:00 PM
From: Real Man	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1301

Yes, I've seen it. But I don't remember where. Basically, there was a rule not to allocate more than 25% to any given sector. They have cancelled the rule with respect to energy sector in Russia, which I believe is reasonable. The short-term debt is extremely attractive in Russia right now (should yield above 20% in real terms) so stocks are going nowhere. I believe, however, the general direction for the rates is down. I just can't see Russia returning to 164% short-term bonds, which were issued just prior to Yeltsin's elections. Then there was a war and a highly uncertain political climate (with Mr. Ziuganov leading in the presidential polls). I'm still unclear on the long-term effect of a US bear on Russian markets (I have a defensive position in the US -gold and shorts). The economies, at least, are uncorrelated - Russia enjoyed the most wonderful time in the 70-s with high energy prices while US had a bear. I guess, the collapse of communism was partly caused by collapsing raw material prices. However, there is this debt, and US market bear (Europe will follow) will lead to high interest rates in Russia. Go figure. Anyway, the capitalization of the Russian market is so low, it will fluctuate not like a market, but rather like a stock.

To: Thomas Haegin who wrote (79)	4/28/1998 4:06:00 PM
From: Real Man	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1301

Just looking at daily news. Here is something for you. MOSCOW, April 28 (AFP) - Russian gas giant Gazprom is to boost its stake in Russia's second largest bank, Inkombank, to 25 percent plus one share by the end of the year, an Inkombank spokesman said. The spokesman told AFP that Gazprom would increase its current four percent shareholding to 25 percent plus one share by buying up much of a new share issue which Inkombank is planning. The stake will give Gazprom a blocking minority in Inkombank, Russia's second largest bank in terms of assets and the third in terms of branches around the country. Gazprom, Russia's largest company the producer of one quarter of the world's natural gas, already holds stakes in four Russian banks, including Imperial bank, which also figures among the top 10 banks in the country.