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Technology Stocks : Dell Technologies Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Patrick E.McDaniel who wrote (39340)	4/28/1998 10:24:00 AM
From: Sig	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 176387

Pat: Did somebody just drop a cat off the roof??? Hope it wasn't Chuzzlewit (VBG) Sig

To: Patrick E.McDaniel who wrote (39340)	4/28/1998 3:07:00 PM
From: Gabriel008	Respond to of 176387

Patrick, OOPS didn't see the disclaimer. That's probably why the numbers understated the actual in Q4 by 52,000 units in the Dataquest estimates.IDC was off by 32,000 units. The disparity may [probably] will be higher this quarter due to the higher unit volume. Given this I would think that 1.6 million units may be a solid enough number to go with. Here are some additional thoughts on this quarter's earnings. ú ASP: I suspect that DELL will not experience price erosion for 2 primary reasons: 1- the increasing importance of server, workstation and portables business and the higher ASP's associated with these. 2- the increasing importance of their European business. Last quarter the European business accounted for 25% of units & 27% of revenues. This quarter European units may account for 27% of overall volume and maybe as much as 30% of total revenues. I'm staying with a $2600 ASP. ú Gross Profit: same as Q4,98 for the reasons outlined above plus the fact that customer price reductions are being offset by component cost savings. I've left the GP at 22%. ú Net Profit After Tax: 7.66% - just a touch higher than Q4,98 since I believe their % operating costs [as a percentage of revenue] may continue to go down [I've assumed 11.3%]. I've also included $17 million in additional income from other sources[over & above operating income]. ú Shares outstanding [weighted average]: in order to calculate the diluted eps I've used 690 million shares. In Q4,98 there were 706 million outstanding and the previous quarter's was 721 million. I'm assuming a fairly orderly repurchase pattern. ú EPS: 46›