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Technology Stocks : America On-Line: will it survive ...? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Keith J who wrote (9652)	4/28/1998 7:07:00 PM
From: Tom Rollins	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 13594

KJ, I bought june 75 AOL puts today. (my past trading history says AOL will gap up tomorrow) I am (thinking hoping) the market will tank soon and take AOL with it. -tom

To: Keith J who wrote (9652)	4/28/1998 9:13:00 PM
From: Todd Daniels	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 13594

Either the CFO's remarks were reported wrong or the CFO is toking something real strong: - U.S. membership of 14 million for the coming year alone would suggest a value of $87 a share. =$20 b = $1428 per sub BUT $21.95/mo x 12 months = $263/sub Even five years worth discounted to present value is just $1,113 per 14 million subs AND AOL LOOSES $ ON ACCESS, SO WHAT MATTERS IS AD-COMMERCE: - advertising and online commerce revenue at $50 a share =$12 b Concensus for Q3 = $115 million To reach $12 billion in even five years growth would have to be 152% PER QUARTER - International membership $7.50 a share =$ 1.8b = $1,800 per sub 26% greater than domestic ????? - Investments and cash $5 a share =$ 1.2b Current cash = $750 million Less Notes Payable = ($372) Investments = $155 TOTAL = $533 million BOOK VALUE = $310m (est) PER SHARE = $1.30 (est)