To: Ken Benes who wrote (5889 ) 4/28/1998 9:53:00 PM From: Frederick Smart Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 10227
Market Muse.... >>Nextel is currently hostage to the market. As a highly leverage play, nextel will react to the systemic moves in the market regardless of the fundamentals of the company.>> Gee, when have we heard this saw before? >>Without any earnings, the only way to value nextel is the price to book, ARPU, and cash flow. To price the company to future cash flows is difficult because should stock prices decline, multiples used for such calculations may change.>> Keep selling everyone. I'm happy to buy more. >>One thing is certain, nextel has lost its momentum. This will make it exceedingly difficult to reach the 46+ level this summer. Without this upside potential, nextel carries more risk than a stock with good earnings increase.>> Ken, this is no different than looking in the rear view mirror and saying "hey look at what we just past..." This is a silly exercise - good to work up the weak holders on this thread and elsewhere. "Without this upside potential...?" Did you suddenly elect yourself our resident TA guru? >>What can change this scenario? Continued strength in the economy and the markets with low interest rates; continuation of record levels of add ons; good numbers from its overseas operations; and finally increasing debt as little as possible.>> Ken, this stuff is a given. Dig deeper. Where's the hole in Nextel's boat? Keep looking. I've looked for 3+ years and I, with the exception of poor billing and accounting systems - which they are correcting - I still haven't found one. Ask around. Do you own research. I'm out there every day with the common white collar mobile wireless worker and all I see is HUGE upside. Once you've locked people into DC it's almost impossible to give up. I happen to have an i600 defective phone with a confirmed poor signal - I don't have time to swap it out because I'm using the phone so much. >>The current environment of very high valuations that may be correcting is not the best environment for a startup.>> "Startup??" Ha, ha, ha, ha. This is really funny. Do you own a Nextel phone? Do you DC? How many people are in your DC "pod"? I facillitate Nextel DC pods anywhere here in the greater Chicagoland area - my requirement: at least 3 persons across two companies. I am spreading a Nextel networking web across businesses that I know will buy my value-added services - beginning with trading access, network consulting, technology app development, etc. All I can say is, from here on down is a terrific time to buy more Nextel. Al bailing out is an initial confirming indicator that's proven true in the past. No offense Al. Good luck!