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Pastimes : Ask Mohan about the Market -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Simon who wrote (15582)4/29/1998 6:55:00 AM
From: John Hunt  Respond to of 18056
 
Fiend's Commentary Today

fiendbear.com

Clan of the Greenspan

The following comes from my local paper's News of the Weird column:

According to a March report in The New Republic, some Wall Street investment houses celebrate the incredible bull market by engaging in ritual worship of Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan. One firm holds a cake party and songfest on Greenspan's birthday, and another has outfitted a special office with Greenspan memorabilia and a red leather chair in which bond traders can sit and meditate on the great man.

Certainly not a good sign for sentiment when a Federal Reserve Chairman is being treated as something other than a mere fallible mortal. But hey, in this current mania where bubble stocks such as K-Tel, Market Guide (internet related plays) can rocket up even as most other stocks fall, nothing really surprises me anymore.

Look at all the press the Dow's 150 point drop received on Tuesday. That is just 1.6% but it was front page news in several papers which went out of their way to try to ease investor fears that don't exist at this point anyway.

Bullish analysts such as Abby Cohen and Ralph Acampora quickly switched gears and suggested that the market needs to cool off to remain healthy.

So you see -- even corrections are bullish. Somehow, a 5% drop in the market is enough to erase the market's extreme overvaluation and create "bargains."

This sort of logic is just as loopy as worshiping Alan Greenspan but it is absolutely dominate in just about every media source you turn to. By objective measures, the market is at its most overvalued point in history but as Abby Cohen declared, "stocks are fairly valued."

What will be said decades from now when the Great Bull market of the 1990s and its subsequent collapse are distant memories? Younger folks will ask us what the hell were we thinking about when we plowed all of our savings into what would turn out to be a sophisticated Ponzi scheme. They will ask us why we didn't see that the market was so obviously overvalued and bound to inevitably crash.

I just hope that when the mania does end, the Bulls don't get any ideas about ritually sacrificing a few Bears to turn things around.

:-))

John