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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: James F. Hopkins who wrote (17556)	4/28/1998 10:18:00 PM
From: James Anderson	Respond to of 94695

basic ta (spx cash) 3 month uptrend broken 4/7, decelerated 1 month uptrend broken 4/24, 14 day rsi heading down since 3/26, 18 day tsv just crossed negative, 13,8,8 sto been overbought since 2/2-clearly headed down as of today, 12,26,9 macd headed down since 4/8, bop slightly positive/neutral but been slowly decreasing since 4/7, moneystream down since 4/23. resting just above the 50dma at 1079, if broken, no support until 1050, roughly where the 89dma and the last micro-consolidation period was. If the 89dma is broken, no support until the 150dma at 1010. Just my read, ta only. fwiw, James.

To: James F. Hopkins who wrote (17556)	4/28/1998 11:10:00 PM
From: P.Prazeres	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

Today was the second day of new lows over 40 on the NYSE. The 50 day MA on the dow is at 8785.87. The 200 day MA is at 8118.75. Obviously neither of these have been violated during this correction. However, the 20 day MA provided resistance yesterday and today...probably coincidenctal...well, probably not. It was providing support during the move up from late January. And the 15 day MA has turned downward. It had been steadily rising since late January and peaked for the time being last Friday. The dow hit a high of 9213 last week (just 13 points above my year end target...pretty lucky , eh) The short term good news is that today we didn't trade below the low set yesterday....but that's about all the good news I can find on the Dow. Again, look for support at the 50 day MA. Right now 8785.87. If the Dow closes below that, it may take a stab at the 200 day MA. If that were to occur, it would give a little room for interest rates to be higher. If rates stay about where they are and the correction to the 200 day MA occurs, it would probably signal a heck of a buy signal...but this is still premature thinking...too many ifs for now. Another interesting development today. The small caps rallied over 1% today....an interesting divergence. Is a repeat of the small cap rally about to occur??? Just some thoughts for tonight. Paulo PS. The oil services (OSX) was up pretty nicely today also. These are great values in a market of over priced stuff. UTI, ESV, RIG, MAVK, KEG are jsut a few. UTI reports later this week.

To: James F. Hopkins who wrote (17556)	4/29/1998 8:38:00 AM
From: Tommaso	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 94695

I wish I could believe that the trend was set, but I don't think it is. It wouldn't make any difference as to how I position my investments at this point, because I am a permabear (until the market is down at least 40%) and losing money on those positions. But I am afraid that the euphoria is still there for most people. Also, except for a few insane gamblers in the third-tier Internet stocks, it seems a kind of calm euphoria--more like the British complacency over their Empire than a Nazi exhilaration at overrunning much of Russia. As long as people go on feeding their retirement savings into mutual funds, I don't think we are going to have a true bear market. Maybe it's not a good analogy, but look at all the people who go on smoking. I think these 20% returns have hooked maybe 25 million of the 40 million investors and they can't let go.