To: Brian K Crawford who wrote (215 ) 4/29/1998 11:03:00 PM From: Brian K Crawford Respond to of 2752
FWIW....a very rough attempt to value TSQD holdings in Digital River, using a price to sales approach: ================================================== First section is Digital River only (no TSQD)... Est. Quarterly Data Mar 98 ============== Sales $3,000,000 ** Shares out (est) 2,609,000 Sales/Share $1.15 Sales/Share*4 $4.60 (annualizing quarterly sales) Est value per Digital River Share @ X times annual Sales: X = 5 $23 X = 10 $46 X = 25 $115 Total Digital River Mkt Cap (000) at Price-to-sales = X = 5 $59,800 X = 10 $119,600 X = 25 $299,000 ============================================ Following section is TSQD.... TSQD Holdings Value @ 23% of Total X = 5 $13,754 X = 10 $27,508 X = 25 $68,770 (Joel Ronning owns about 70% of TSQD, if I remember correctly) Value Per TSQD Share @ 10,374,870 shares outstanding: X = 5 $1.33 X = 10 $2.65 X = 25 $6.62 Note: ** Backed into outstanding Digital River shares based on TSQD option of 600,000 shares representing 23% of Digital River outstanding stock. ============================================== Rambling and speculative thoughts: 1.Sales have been growing at a rate of 100+% sequentially quarter over quarter. (See my post #36 for historical data). Digital River says they are currently doing $1 million per month sales. If they can do $2 million per month in sales for the June quarter with no further dilution, all figures above...well you can do the math... 2.TSQD was selling in the area of half a buck per share before Digital River came into the picture. So add $.50 to get total TSQD valuation. 3. Quoting from the Minneapolis/St Paul City Business Journal article "The company, which distributes software and other digital products over the Internet, has meanwhile seen its trickle of clients grow to a flood, and with the ink on its most recent $13-million-plus private placement not yet dry, Digital River is already looking forward to a possible initial public offering (IPO) later this year." If I understand correctly, they have raised $13 million thru the issuance of 1,609,000 shares. Average net proceeds per share = $8.08 !?!?! 4. Note: Price to sales ratio for some e-commerce companies at 1/98: Amazon AMZN 9.4 N2K NTKI 26.1 Feel free to compliment...or blast away.... at any and all of the above. Brian