To: Chung Lee who wrote (54741 ) 4/29/1998 1:50:00 AM From: Stogey Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 186894
Has this already been factored into the price? Tuesday April 28, 10:24 pm Eastern Time Dataquest cuts 1998 semiconductor forecast (New throughout, changes dateline; pvs San Jose) By Mark Egan LOS ANGELES, April 28 (Reuters) - Worldwide semiconductor sales are expected to grow a moderate 8 percent in 1998, industry research firm Dataquest said Tuesday, less than half of what it predicted just seven months ago. But growth is expected to return to double digits in 1999, it said. ''The Asian financial crisis, low DRAM pricing and DRAM overcapacity, and the general overcapacity and pricing pressures that exist in other product segments will hamper semiconductor revenue growth this year,'' said Joe Grenier, director of Dataquest's semiconductor programs. DRAM stands for Dynamic Random Access Memory, the type of memory chip used extensively in personal computers. Dataquest, a unit of Gartner Group Inc., said revenues from the sale of semiconductors this year are projected to reach $159 billion. Last September, Dataquest forecast 16.7 percent global semiconductor growth to $175 billion for 1998. Since then, competition has continued to increase in both DRAM and microprocessors, causing an oversupply, and the Asian economic crisis has also slowed sales. A weak yen has also hit revenues because Japan accounts for about one-quarter of the market for semiconductors. In addition, the increased popularity of the sub-$1,000 personal computer had led to a drive to cut prices of microprocessors while computer makers are moving toward making computers on demand, reducing their chip inventories. In February, Datquest said its previous estimate was too high given the ongoing DRAM and Asian problems and made a preliminary forecast that growth could be as little as 7 percent in 1998. Stocks of semiconductor companies such as Intel Corp. and Advanced Micro Devices Inc. were largely unmoved Tuesday by the lastest forecast. Analysts said the slower growth rate had been expected following recent comments from Motorola Inc. and Texas Instruments Inc. on the potential for growth in the semiconductor market. ''We've seen the industry's statistics for the first two months of this year, and they were down right depressing,'' Dan Scovel, an analyst at Fahnestock & Co., said of the forecast. ''There have been two years of back-to-back 75 percent decrease in prices in DRAM,and that is highly unusual ... DRAM remains a problem.'' Dataquest said the global semiconductor industry will return to strong growth in 1999, when the market is forecast to grow 18 percent, with revenue surpassing $188 billion. Even with single-digit growth in 1998, the semiconductor industry will nearly double by 2002, with revenue approaching $288 billion. Dataquest said last week it expected DRAM prices to decline by 40 percent in 1998. Prices fell by 75 percent in 1997 and at a similar rate in the prior year. On average, DRAM prices have declined by about 32 percent in the past 20 years.