Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Disk Drive Sector Discussion Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: shane forbes who wrote (3126)	4/29/1998 11:42:00 AM
From: Sam	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9256

Shane, Thanks for posting the TrendFocus article. They say "Fujitsu, Maxtor, Toshiba, Hitachi, and Samsung are all investing heavily and are challenging U.S. dominance across the product spectrum. Since 1994, there has been a four-fold increase in non-U.S. market share.'' TRENDFOCUS anticipates that non-U.S. vendors will continue to increase output to boost share and generate sustained market momentum." I wonder if a year ago they were predicting (along with most of the rest of our experts) that Asian growth would continue to range from the high single digits to low double digits through Y2K and beyond. Obviously, I don't believe their prediction. These guys don't have cheap cheap money any more. I also don't think that they will allowed to simply target market share with razor thin margins any more. They will have to rethink their business model, as banks won't just shut their eyes and finance more "tallest buildings in the world", as they have in the past. We'll see. Sam

To: shane forbes who wrote (3126)	5/5/1998 4:08:00 AM
From: Pierre-X	Respond to of 9256

Re: Trendfocus jabbering Interesting article. The hard disk drive (HDD) industry is poised for tremendous growth over the next four years ... Sure, when you've been beaten up as much as HDD there's lots of room for improvement (AKA poised for growth). <G> What goes down must come up, eh? Of course, nobody knows what will happen in four years. ... rising storage requirements brought on by new software, wider bandwidth in internet applications, voice recognition ... New software: that could only be (and be only!) W98 and NT5. Wider bandwidth: not bloody likely in the near term. Voice recognition: sorry guys, it's not really demanding of drive space. Much more demanding in terms of DRAM and CPU horsepower. Average storage capacities have skyrocketed in recent years. The trend will slow slightly in 1998 and 1999 before accelerating again. Now that's an interesting statement. I wonder if this storage-cap growth projection is chiefly the anticipation of the next technology transition away from MR. With entry-level PC pricing rapidly approaching $500 ... Um, no. Stabilizing HDD and DRAM prices will prevent that. Plus, there's only so much the price of a screen can drop. Most of the "cheap PCs" you see today in the $800 range DON'T include a screen. Since 1994, there has been a four-fold increase in non-U.S. market share. This was worth repeating. <g> Speaking of which, I bought my first Samsung drives a couple of days ago ... a pair of UDMA 4.3 giggers for $132 apiece (3.1 cents/MB). I see ADPT chips on the circuit board ... Speaking of UDMA, my IBM benches much faster in Norton SI than my WDC. 9 MB/s vs 5 MB/s sustained xfer respectively ... hmm. New operating systems, application software, video editing, digital photography, home servers, and true internet usage via greater bandwidth will boost storage requirements ... Let's look at that laundry list. I'm certain this includes everything Donovan could think of. 1. New OS -- Indeed, this is a demand stim. But approaching past magnitudes? Uncertain. 2. New app software -- Um, what new app software? 3. Video editing -- Oh yes, real mass market potential here. Not. 4. Digital photography -- Sorry, this stuff doesn't use much drive space. Not when the average camera holds 2MB. When that number goes to 20MB, you might have something. Pray for flash prices to come down. <g> 5. Home servers -- Say what? 6. True internet usage -- So ... what we have now is phony internet usage? Duh ... Certainly increasing bandwidth will drive storage demand. But will this happen on a large scale in the next few years? I sure hope so, but I'm not holding my breath. Actually, there is more than enough bandwidth for well designed web sites. But that's a bedtime story for another day. I wonder who Trendfocus is trying to hype here? God bless, PX