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Technology Stocks : How high will Microsoft fly? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mick Mørmøny who wrote (6308)	4/29/1998 11:25:00 AM
From: Shibumi	Respond to of 74651

>>Excuse me, but how do you interpret the following chart?<< It must be a trick question. I interpret it as Microsoft having a 45.6% return over a 10 year period. Of course, this doesn't tell me whether Microsoft goes down in even years and up in odd years, or whatever. I'm sure you realize this -- but if you believe that you have a method of telling short-term movement apart from long-term movement, and the short-term movements are sufficiently volatile, you can make much more money in the short-term than the long-term I tend to only invest long-term because I simply can't get the short-term indicators to work more reliably than the gains I get from long-term movement...but that's just me. Actually, the chart from the paper copy of _Fortune_ was even more interesting since it had not only share holder returns over a 10 year period but also it had earnings growth over that period. If I remember correctly, Microsoft showed an increasing P/E valuation over that 10 year period. You might argue that the future is more certain for the company, but given that Microsoft has much more of the market it tends to argue for those talking about over-valuation. (Note: I'm a long-term holder of Microsoft). The interesting company in that chart was Applied Materials with respect to earnings growth versus shareholder valuation over a 10 year period.