Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Gold/Mining/Energy : Gold Price Monitor -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bobby Yellin who wrote (10923)	4/29/1998 1:19:00 PM
From: Crimson Ghost	Respond to of 116762

An item on the daily news summary I get from Netcom argued that the year 2000 problem may cost the US financial industry $6 billion. The actual number probably will be several times this large. And I doubt all the players will be year 2000 compliant on time. When the bear market finally arrives, the financial stocks will be slaughtered. Speculative excesses in this sector are incredible. Drops of 75% will not be uncommon.

To: Bobby Yellin who wrote (10923)	4/29/1998 1:24:00 PM
From: Gary H	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116762

Bobby, A couple of places to check. y2knet.com pcmike.com monumental.com Wish it was better news, but... I'm I holding gold? You betsha. Cheers,

To: Bobby Yellin who wrote (10923)	4/29/1998 1:34:00 PM
From: IngotWeTrust	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 116762

rather "short" sighted of HMOs wldn't you agree. Doesn't more sex=more babies=more pre-natal care revenues=more hospital beds, etc., etc., etc. O/49r

To: Bobby Yellin who wrote (10923)	4/29/1998 1:41:00 PM
From: Wizzer	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 116762

Bobby, although many "experts" say the 2000 year bug is being taken care of, investors will be worried anyway. Any time the market is jittery or insecure there is the possibility of moving into metals for stability. I would not disagree with anyone who thinks that the 2000 bug will not cause a problem. The uncertainty will be enough to do the market in. I don't think it will be a wait and see what happens with investors. Even if North America is prepared, the rest of the world has been slow to react to this problem. In 1999, I would predict that Gold and other metal futures will start to rise, IMO. Central banks have stopped most of their selling and I believe they will re-evaluate gold and start stockpiling the "yellow stuff" again because it will be more stable than currencies around the year 2000. This will be an indicator that investors will soon follow suit and get into gold and other metals so we should all watch for this. We may see prices in gold and other metals that rival the late 70's early 80's run. As the precious metal futures start to rise we will start to see a slow movement out of stocks. Stocks that have revenue from parts of the world where they are not prepared for the "2000 bug" will get hammered. [I think Apple Computer may also be an indicator of the magnitude of the problem because their systems don't have the "bug": if it starts to soar in price....watch out] No matter what the experts say, I will not take the risk of being in stocks at that crucial point where I feel disaster and panic thinking will be the rule rather than the exception. Having cash on hand will create the opportunities of a lifetime, as anyone who has money to use at the time will be buying up cheap stocks like crazy.

To: Bobby Yellin who wrote (10923)	4/29/1998 8:47:00 PM
From: goldsnow	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 116762

Inflation hawks back in the limelight - Fed sources 04:00 p.m Apr 29, 1998 Eastern By Jose Paulo Vicente NEW YORK9 (Reuters) - The inflation vigilantes at the Federal Reserve are back in the limelight after a long period behind the scenes and they want to keep their spot on center stage. Fed sources said the strong domestic economy in the first quarter of the year provided evidence of what inflation hawks have been saying all along: strong growth, healthy demand and a frothy stock market are unlikely to slow by themselves, and might fuel inflation in the long run. ''First-quarter data showed the economy has kept its underlying strength despite Asia,'' a Fed source told Reuters, referring to the financial crisis in Asia that had been expected to dampen economic growth in the United States. ''That has put the hawks in alert mode,'' the source, who asked not to be named, added. Meanwhile, a source close to the Fed said the strength in the economy early this year gave the anti-inflation hawks enough room to push for a change in the central bank's stance. It is now leaning toward raising rates from its previously position of holding rates steady. The change came in March. ''That's what the hawks were waiting for. They needed some numbers to make their voice heard. And, believe me, they are being heard now,'' the source said. Reports that the Fed had changed its bias was first reported in the Wall Street Journal Monday. The Washington Post reported Tuesday that Fed sources cofirmed the shift in the central bank's leaning. The articles claimed the Fed changed its bias at the March 31 meeting of Fed policy-makers. Normally, that information would have been released to the public two days after the Fed's next policy meeting on May 19. The disclosure roiled financial markets Monday and Tuesday, when the Dow Jones industrial average fell more than 160 points. The index rebounded and rose 71 points to 8,970 Wednesday. While the change in its leaning does not mean the Fed will raise rates, former Fed officials and university professors said a rate hike might be looming. They said the question at this point is not whether the economy will slow down in the second quarter, as is widely expected, but whether that slowdown will endure through the third and fourth quarters. A growing number of economists, inside and outside the Fed, believe the dampening effect of the Asian crisis on U.S. growth will be mostly played out by mid-year, which suggests the economy could roar back after a summer lull. ''That's the main concern now. The possibility of demand remaining strong in the third and fourth quarters is what is having the Fed hawks worried,'' the source close to the Fed said. If the economy does not slow, there will be little left for the Fed to do but raise rates in a bid to slow growth and ward off inflation. ''The question at issue is what is going to happen after the second quarter slowdown,'' said Lyle Gramley, a former governor at the Federal Reserve Board. ''The negative impact of the Asian slowdown will largely be over by mid-year, and then the issue is whether the economy's underlying strength re-emerges. My guess is that it will, and the Fed will have to tighten policy,'' he said. Robert Forrestal, a former president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, agreed, saying: ''I think they're fairly close to making a move because the economy is moving rather rapidly.'' The former Fed officials said the Asia-induced slowdown in the second quarter would probably prevent the Fed from raising rates at a May 19 policy-making meeting. But they added that they expected higher rates at the next meeting in late June. Robert Murphy, an economics professor at Boston College and a former senior economist with the Clinton administration, said he also expected the Fed to raise short-term rates later this year. ''The Fed would have acted already if it weren't for the Asian crisis ... The standard economic framework still holds, and the factors keeping inflation down are mostly temporary,'' he said. The Fed raised short-term rates in March 1997, the first increase in more than two years, but has held rates steady since. Despite the strong economy, inflation has been all but invisible, with the Consumer Price Index up a mere 1.4 percent over the last year. Copyright 1998 Reuters Limited.