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Technology Stocks : Y2K (Year 2000) Personal Contingency Planning -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Anton Wilson who wrote (231)	4/29/1998 9:15:00 PM
From: Todd J.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 888

Ed Yourdon is editor of AMERICAN PROGRAMMER and one of the world's leading authorities on software development, author of 25 books on programming, developer of software methodologies used by thousands of companies around the world. Mr. Yourdon made these comments in defense when a skeptic claimed his latest book, TIME BOMB 2000, was all hype: "...maybe the international banking system will survive, but when Alan Greenspan says Y2K could be a serious problem (as he did today, in his testimony to the Senate) you'd better pay attention. From my perspective, this is not a theoretical, academic issue: this affects my retirement savings and it's not something I feel like risking. Bottom line: the banking system, as we currently know it, is in serious danger of collapsing." "I can't claim that my crystal ball is perfect, but I will tell you that my own personal Y2K plans include a very simple assumption: the government of the U.S., as we currently know it, will fall on 1/1/2000. Period. "If Y2K does turn out to be as bad as I think it will be, nobody is going to care about the opinions of software professionals on 1/1/2000 (other than possibly lynching them for having created the problem in the first place!); instead, everyone is going to be concentrating on how to get food, shelter, clothing, and the basic necessities of life. Y2K threatens all of this, except in the backwards economies that have never depended on automation or socio-economic interactions with other automated societies. Rural China will probably be okay; but in my humble opinion, New York, Chicago, Atlanta and a dozen other cities are going to resemble Beirut in January 2000. That's why I've moved out of NYC to rural New Mexico a couple months ago."

To: Anton Wilson who wrote (231)	4/29/1998 11:59:00 PM
From: jwk	Respond to of 888

AW -- just wanted to second the thoughts you expressed and add an update on the DIA story I posted the other day. First, I just meant that to be one indicator of how people might react to y2k induced glitches if and when they find themselves stranded in some form of public conveyance. Second, remember at DIA the only problem was with one part on one train car. That caused a whole series of other problems including the need to empty an entire concourse ( they're huge) because one bus driver dropped off one load of passengers at the wrong door. People who were stuck in a dark, unventilated tunnel for over an hour, who had waited in lines for buses for over an hour, who had missed their flights and made it on to another flight, were kept sitting on a plane for over on hour and then returned to the terminal where they had to de-plane, wait for another bus, and go through the cycle again. POINT OF THIS IS: the only initial problem was one bad wheel on one train car. Everthing else casdaded down from it...... AND the whole rest of the infastructure was working fine. You gotta ask: What if the initial glitch had been a bit more wide spread? What if the level of infastructure support had been lss because of other situations? What if it hadn't been a nice warm and pleasent spring afternoon ( say perhaps, oh I don't know ...... early January?)? Also, the Denver media has been filled the last two days with stories about the whitewash of the situation. The conditions in the trains were much worse than reported. They are very lucky that there were no serious injuries or worse. Final two comments: DIA showed us that one small problem can bring on a whole series of bigger problems very quickly, AND no matter what the amount or level of the problems are, the key factor is how the people affected respond to them. Just a few people having difficultydealing with a situation can make the whole thing a lot worse for everyone very quickly. DIA was an ice cube. Y2K could be an ice berg. No problem though 'cause this thing can't sink ..... I mean we'rebusy and important people. We don't have time to have our lives inconvenienced like that.