To: djane who wrote (45707 ) 4/29/1998 3:25:00 PM From: Teddy Respond to of 61433
It's Role Reversal for Cramer at the H&Q Conference By James J. Cramer 4/29/98 3:10 PM ET Talk about the height of absurdity. I just called in to tell Jeff Berkowitz, my partner, how the 3Com and Ascend meetings went. Jeff is the quintessential Mr. Outside. He is always trying to figure out new changes at the margins, pick up hints, find out new things about companies. He is a fixture at forums like the one I am at right now, the Hambrecht & Quist Technology Conference. I am the quintessential Mr. Inside. I take Jeff's data points and I turn them into stock points. So imagine my surprise when I told Jeff that I had just pulled up with Mory Ejabat, the CEO of Ascend, and he was quite bullish, and then having to be told, "Well, Jim, that's why the stock is up a buck. Duh." Heck, that's my job he's doing. And he's dissing me! But every year I make it a point to go to three of these conferences. I do it because if I don't I will get stale. I will not feel the pulse of the industry, know the new players, understand how business is humming, or not, at least at America's latest and greatest companies. If I don't do this I run the risk of just trading the Ciscos and the 3Coms, tried and true names that I know well and am comfortable with. One of the things that drove the Trading Goddess crazy in the early '90s was that I was always jamming on new names like Cisco and Oracle, when she was much more comfortable trading the Cats and the Deeres. She hated the new stocks, but that's where the performance was. She would rather retire than change, and she did! Give me Maytag or give me death, I guess. That's why I have to find out about the Rogue Waves and the Ovids. I can't afford to just trade the same old names when there could be some home runs out there. But you have to see these companies in action to understand what they do and get the feel for their execs to see if you believe they can execute. Still I found myself playing my role at these meetings, not Jeff's. Take a look at the schematic of my mind during the Ascend meeting: "Hmmm, wish he had said Europe was a tad better, could knock the stock to $42, but wait a sec, that's positive on Japan, going to $43. Oh no, he didn't take the bait offered by H&Q analyst Joe Noel and preannounce better numbers. He's not smiling. $41 look out. Ah, attacking Cisco, back to $43, but how about my Cisco position?" Get's a little like the Strangers on a Train tennis scene if you ask me. Meanwhile, some of these meetings remind me of opera. I sit around and wade through all of Die Walkure just to hear the Ride of the Valkyries -- the earnings forecast -- and would just as soon nod off at the rest. For Jeff, though, this stuff must be like Mozart, one good aria after another. Guess I am jealous. For what it is worth, the synthesis of 3Com and Ascend from Cramer Berkowitz? Same as previous guidance. Now that's worth flying 3,000 miles for!!!! James J. Cramer is manager of a hedge fund and co-chairman of TheStreet.com. At time of publication, his fund is long Ascend, Cisco and 3Com, although positions may change at any time. Under no circumstances does the information in this column represent a recommendation to buy or sell stocks. Mr. Cramer's writings provide insights into the dynamics of money management and are not a solicitation for transactions. While he cannot provide investment advice or recommendations, he welcomes your feedback, emailed to Jjc@thestreet.com. See Also WRONG! DISPATCHES FROM THE FRONT ARCHIVE