To: Tom D who wrote (3656 ) 4/29/1998 5:20:00 PM From: Oeconomicus Respond to of 164684
Tom, you guys give us a hard time for making the same old valuation arguments and here you are arguing again that BKS and BGP are borderline insolvent - the weight of all those stores and the associated "debt" means that they are really destroying value and therefore can't compete with the financially strong AMZN ... blah, blah, blah. Tom, just because you read it in some analyst's report doesn't make it true. The fact is that BKS produced a return on equity of almost 14% over the last 12 months, has almost half a billion dollars of book equity and has financial resources available to it the size and terms of which make AMZN's deals look like small time, overly expensive junk. If I were a shareholder of BKS, I would be very pleased, not worried, that they lease most of their stores - let someone else risk their capital on real estate. If you have some evidence that they are improperly classifying lease obligations to keep them off the balance sheet, I suggest you buy some BKS puts and post the evidence. As for the WACC thing, post the analysis - either it has lost something in translation or the analyst is terribly confused. Remember this, BKS and BGP both make money. They produce positive accounting income and positive cash flow. They are not taking on a huge debt obligations with no hope of turning a profit for at least two more years so that they can make acquisitions that wipe out what little equity they have and push out the breakeven point even further. The facts are that AMZN's "land-based" competition is financially much stronger, that bricks and mortar generate cash that can be used to promote and build online sales, that they have greater brand recognition among the book buying public, and that they can sell books profitably online at much lower prices than AMZN. Can't wait to see the terms of the debt deal and the acquisitions. Of course, to the analysts and shareholders, what you don't know can't hurt you, right? If you can just keep bidding up the price, they'll be able to float new stock to pay off the debt with less dilution than if they just sold stock now, right? Well, Tom, an inability to service debt usually means no returns to the equity holders. If they have to issue stock to repay the debt, they shouldn't be issuing the debt. OTOH, from the lender's perspective, I could own all the equity for a mere $275 million plus a call option I would grant to you. For half a billion dollars (or more - we can only guess right now) in five years, you can buy the company back from me. Deal? Bob