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Technology Stocks : Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Tom D who wrote (3669)	4/29/1998 9:48:00 PM
From: zebraspot	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 164684

>At any rate, this is what is inspiring bulls to pay $100 per share for this company. It clearly has nothing to do with the current P/S ratio or book value of the company.< Tom, I have a house I'd like to sell you today. I just know it will probably be worth 3X current market price in 2003, when all you Amazin.con billionaires come looking to live on the beach. How much will you pay me for it today?

To: Tom D who wrote (3669)	4/29/1998 10:06:00 PM
From: Oeconomicus	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 164684

I don't see a problem with AMZN grabbing 20% of this market in 2003. Tom, BKS and BGP together only had about 1/4 of the US book market last year (and that's assuming that all their revenues are from books). How can you seriously argue that one online bookseller, with no "land-based" revenue at all, will have almost as big a share in 2003 as the two leaders, with a couple thousand stores, have now. How do you arrive at this? Will AMZN have 100% of the Web's 20% of all book sales? 50% of 40%? Or will it be 20% of 100% with all brick and mortar stores being shut down? Get real. By 2003, if AMZN is even still around (which depends as much on the terms of this debt deal as on their marketing genius), you'll be lucky to have a $2-3 billion revenue company operating in a handful of thin margin product lines. It will be burdened by the fast approaching $50mm+ annual interest payments and $100mm+ principal payments. And it won't be valued at 3 times sales - companies in such thin margin businesses don't get that kind of valuation (except in a mania of course). Oh, and whatever it's valued at in 2003, don't forget to subtract a half billion dollars to arrive at the equity value (if any). BWDIK? Bob

To: Tom D who wrote (3669)	4/29/1998 10:10:00 PM
From: Glenn D. Rudolph	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 164684

Somebody else criticized this vision of mine as that of an unfocused company. Is Wal-Mart unfocused because they sell so many different types of merchandise? Tom, Walmart is a "discount" store. All their merchandise is really the same. Look for large appliances, automobiles, qua;ity furniture, etc. You will not find it. They stick to merchandise they know. Low end discount. Alex Brown projects 5% annual growth in the US Book market Alex Brown knows far less about the book market than the people that sell books. I would rather here what BKS and BGP are projecting. Those are numbers I can trust. You may have some kind of vision that I certainly do not understand. However, AMZN is a flash in the pan and will be gone within three years. They do not even have a business model in their 10K. Glenn