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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Richard J. Byrd who wrote (17646)	4/30/1998 1:56:00 AM
From: Bull RidaH	Respond to of 94695

Hi Richard, I very much appreciate your input, and know you and many others out there will keep me in check. I enjoy your thoughts and comments as well, and respect the way you candidly share your read on the markets. I realize my call of a few weeks back was terribly wrong. I now realize I was off base looking for a 13% decline from a 5th degree correction, as their is no historical precedent for that size of drop in a 5th degree correction (Thanks Chip Carpenter, for prodding me to do my homework on that subject). In my defense, and as RWS, Carl & Ratan will attest, the market action since 3/20 has been extraordinarily difficult to read, and I still see no way in which I could have finally gotten the overall read corrected until the break on Monday. I regret that many had put credence in my forecast during that period. But if you check my posts starting Jan.12th, you would see that those paying heed to those forecasts would have benefitted from over 170 S&P points to the upside. I didn't change my bullish stance until April 6th, which proved to be the top in the S&P. And, at least the market didn't go UP during my prior big misread, as the S&P's bottomed in the timeframe I stated they would (luckily) at 1105. As for staying on board long forever and ever, I absolutely refuse to go along with that philosophy. I think current market valuations are a farce (historically high PE's as profit growth matures and wanes), and prior large market corrections (1929-1942) and (1966-1982)wiped 90% and 60 to 75% off the balance sheets of equity holders on an inflation adjusted basis (i.e. it can and will happen again, eventually). And there have been dozens of 10 to 35% corrections in between. Buy & holders will pay the price of their naivity. Why hold something who's value has no basis in reality? (unless you know when to expect the balloon to pop, and from what level). Regards, David