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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1998 Short Picks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mike Farrar who wrote (8063)	4/30/1998 11:05:00 AM
From: Bob Trocchi	Respond to of 18691

Jeffrey... >>If the economic numbers are so great, are people not thinking that the FED will definitely raise rates for sure to slow down the economy. << Who knows what people are thinking. I sure don't. I don't believe my opinion of what is going to happen will mean a damm. Nonetheless IMO, the Fed is first trying to "jawbone" interests rates up via the story in the WSJ. In short, let the market do their work. If the "jawboning does not work or if other economic data shows that the economy is not slowing, my guess is they will raise rates in either May or July. We are at the very early stages of the next political campaign. If the FED does nothing, again IMO, this bubble will burst sometime late this year. Given the amount of time for a bubble to correct, it could hurt the DEM's chances in 2000. If however the FED slows the economy down by jawboning or raising rates sooner than later, recovery will or should be underway for the heat of the next Pres. campaign. The trickiest part is the 1998 campaign. The DEMs would love to take the house back in 1998 and if the stock market goes south at that time, it would hurt their chances. Then again, HOuse races are more local than national so it might not hurt like it would in a Pres. campaign. With all that said I am not prepared to give any quantitative support for my opinions. I really question myself that anything I say about politics or the economy holds any weight. Lastly, the market does what it does despite any predictions from us "pea shooters" or the big time institutional analysts. Regards Bob T.