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Biotech / Medical : Pathogenesis(pgns) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ken M who wrote (84)	5/12/1998 2:23:00 AM
From: fossilmark	Respond to of 228

1Q is history, any thoughts on the future? Company guidance to the analysts for 2nd and 3rd quarter results was to expect performance comparable to 1Q and then expect growth in the 4th quarter. The rationale was as follows: 2nd quarter comparison to 1st will be hurt by the retail chain stocking benefit of the first quarter (about $5MM I think). So demand actually improves in the second quarter by that amount, but the comparisons are flat. 3rd quarter vs 2nd is hurt by seasonality -- apparently there is less demand for CF products during the summer vacation months. So the thinking is that those that have started will continue but there will be no new business, so 3Q will look like 2Q. Then growth resumes in the 4th quarter. The analysts translated this into: 1Q (actual) 0.06, 2QE .06, 3QE 0.06, 4QE 0.12 for a total of .30 for the year. I don't know the specifics of CF market dynamics as well as I would like to, but this guidance seems very conservative given the torrid uptake in 1Q98. I'm bullish on PGNS given sales potential for TOBI and additional clinical data expected to be released in 1998. Any thoughts? Mark.