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Technology Stocks : Dell Technologies Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: SecularBull who wrote (39671)	4/30/1998 12:02:00 PM
From: Mohan Marette	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 176388

LOD: Actual P/E to me is pure bunk,nobdoy cares about it, at least I don't,it is history, it is done with, has no relevance.To me it all about the future and not about the past.Laugh if you want but hey that is what I am thinking,it is a free country ain't it???<gg>

To: SecularBull who wrote (39671)	4/30/1998 12:13:00 PM
From: rudedog	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 176388

LoD - I'm in about the same place. I had some discussion on the CPQ thread about this, excerpted here. I don't see anything really wrong with any aspect of Dell's business - have been digging but there's just no smoking gun. I do believe that CPQ will perform more strongly than Dell in 2nd half primarily because I believe CPQ has moved all of their 'bad news' into first half. My sense is that Dell will not retreat significantly but may not grow as strongly in 2nd half. I sold some CPQ (about 15% of my position) and bought Dell in November, obviously turned out to be a good move. Sold the CPQ at 28 in November, got a nice bump from Dell (almost doubled) so far. On 4/29 CPQ was exactly where I left it. I've been back and forth on this. If CPQ does what I think it will, CPQ will pop nicely in second half. If industry growth is slowing and any of that CPQ growth is at Dell's expense, Dell may flatten out in second half, since they have such high expectations. But Dell just seems to keep on chugging so it's hard to make the move. I still have a lot more in CPQ than Dell (about 8:1). Alternate plan B is just hold both, they are both strong stocks but are developing different dynamics. This could add diversity. If CPQ takes most of its growth from IBM and HP and Dell cleans up the little players they could both grow nicely. If I was really smart I would have moved all of the CPQ into Dell in November, doubled my money, then move half back to CPQ - I'd have the original CPQ position, a big Dell position for free, and a little more diversity. But I'm not the type to push all my chips in on one bet. So as you can see I have not exactly decided to do anything...

To: SecularBull who wrote (39671)	4/30/1998 12:32:00 PM
From: Chuzzlewit	Respond to of 176388

LOD, there are some real problems with using p/es as a benchmark. Beyond the obvious problem (they are backward-looking) they are not focused on cash flow (which is much more important than earnings) and they don't take into account perceived growth or long-term interest rates. In addition, they don't consider qualitative issues such as the quality of management, barriers to entry, the nature of competition in the industry etc. Just to give you a simple example using sensitivity analysis, suppose you have a perpetuity with a discount rate of 6%. If the interest rate were to fall by 100 basis points the value of the perpetuity would increase by 20%. TTFN, CTC