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Technology Stocks : Siebel Systems (SEBL) - strong buy? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jean M. Davies Schmith who wrote (1456)	4/30/1998 5:00:00 PM
From: still learning	Respond to of 6974

I have a reasonably open mind: here's my 2 cents: BTW Not sure Motley Fool has ever been accused of having an open mind. I think VNTV (which I recently sold and plan to reacquire below 30), CLFY, which I recently bot based on price and acquisition likelihood) and SEBL, (Which I'd love to buy but at a lower price than it's at now) are all candidates for "overvalued" depending on what they do from here forward. MF said they are worth a look, "Even at rich multiples" which to me implies they may pan out, but there's a lot of risk at such a rich price. Given that MF isn't scared to go out on a limb, that's a pretty tepid endorsement. That said, they may all pan out, but none of them are without problems. SEBL can afford to punt on a few quarters, but don't kid ourselves. The people who've bot in lately are not expecting a retrenchment. If SEBL misses #s for the next 2 qtrs, they will face a lot of selling pressure from folks who aren't in it for the long haul, but merely bot a momentum play and expected to trade out of it easily at a profit. There are many others who are sitting on large profits and may have passed the 18 months test and this Fall are ready to bail too. CLFY and VNTV have their own, very different sets of issues.

To: Jean M. Davies Schmith who wrote (1456)	4/30/1998 5:51:00 PM
From: Trader Dave	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 6974

I wouldn't mind owning sebl, great market, great execution. Concern about integration with scop - that may create buying opportunity, but those troubles may last for a while. It could be awhile before I'm in, I'd prefer to wait for the concern to set in that SAP/ORCL/PSFT are going to get into the front office - that will create some pressure and I'm pretty certain the backoffice guys will have a very difficult time competing against the front office folks that have gained critical mass. TD