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Technology Stocks : The New QLogic (ANCR) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: srvhap who wrote (16041)	5/1/1998 12:41:00 AM
From: Lhn5	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 29386

2001 seems overly pessimistic. Things may turn just when one least expects it.

To: srvhap who wrote (16041)	5/1/1998 7:55:00 AM
From: w2j2	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 29386

srvhap, if Ancor stock is going to move up, it will do so on news of contracts (suddenly). The management is no-nonsense and closed-mouthed. They DID seem quite confident. I would maintain that the company has improved a lot over the last 7 quarters, with MUCH better management and sales staff, and the best switch in the industry. The FC industry is going to take off in the next 2 quarters. That said, this is a speculative investment, and you should not bet your children's college education on it. But, I could look my children in the eye and tell them I bet 5% of their inheritance on a likely winner... PS: Your post sounded somewhat tentative, obviously because you have been attacked on this thread. I want you to know that your views are more than welcome. wj

To: srvhap who wrote (16041)	5/1/1998 9:21:00 AM
From: Craig Stevenson	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 29386

Srvhap, I have certainly attempted to be a voice of reason and trust here on the ANCR thread, with varying degrees of success. Ancor's history over the last couple of years has forced me to take an objective look at everything, and in many cases, my opinions have changed based on that re-evaluation. I have gone from raging bull to a very cautious, almost bear at times. I'm sure most of the people here have been mad at me at one time or another. That must mean I'm doing something right. <g> As far as the conference call goes, the revenues were light, as I expected. My consistent posts about this possibility undoubtedly caused some angst among the faithful, but that is what I honestly believed would happen. I also believed that there would be some charges associated with Sun. Although I was wrong on that one (thankfully), I wish I had followed up by asking if they anticipated any charges from Sun in the future. In hindsight, I should have probed around on this issue a little more. (I think I need some training from Patrick. <g>) This question could also have been answered when they responded to my question about revenue recognition. It is entirely possible that Sun simply bought the switches, and that is the end of the story. I totally understand the frustration that you (and others) feel about this company. The lack of tangible results so far is indisputable. I also invested in ANCR for my family's future, and have suffered the consequences. As to why an investor should still take a look at Ancor, I think there are several reasons. 1. The expansion of the Fibre Channel market is finally happening. A rising tide lifts all boats. 2. The follow-up order from IBM Global Services is encouraging. According to the April 27th issue of InternetWeek (page 35), IBM will release a product called ESRM (Enterprise Storage Resource Manager) in the third quarter of 1998. This product will let IT managers oversee a variety of storage devices and management applications in Windows NT and Unix environments. "ESRM will extend beyond ADSM by adding the capability to manage assets, capacity, policies and recovery, and by supporting Fibre Channel devices and storage area networks where storage is decoupled from the server, Dutch said." This MAY give us a clue as to the timetable surrounding IBM's Fibre Channel products. 3. I don't want to make too much about it yet, but the recent government contract award to Boeing may help Ancor, and we are still waiting for the second half of the Litton contract. Either one, or both of these could help revenues for some time to come. 4. 10-20 OEM possibilities. Think about that. Based on my information, Sequent could be running $30 million per year for Brocade! Think what a contract of that size would do for Ancor. Having said all this, ANCR is still a speculative investment, and as such, it is risky. I don't have anywhere near the position I once did, and probably never will. As always, I think that the risk has to be factored into the price. I wish I could say positively that Ancor will succeed, but I can't. I still believe that this management/sales team is a good one, but they certainly haven't proved it yet. Craig