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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: William H Huebl who wrote (17764)	5/1/1998 8:13:00 AM
From: donald sew	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

William, Here's my feeling as I posted on the TSO thread: The overall short-term technicals are right in the middle. A fair up-day today would put it in the upper mid-range, so there is even more upside room. Technically the bias today is to the upside, but if the NAPM is bad it should be used asv an opportunity to get in on the long side, and targeting 9200 on the DOW is reasonable. Per my cycle analysis, this short-term(5 days) up-cycle should last about another 3-5 days depending on the index, before we reach CLASS SELL status. Heres' a technical tidbit, if we do not reach CLASS SELL status per my technicals in that time frame, I will interpret such as another technical signal that we are at the top for the interim. The key to watch now is whether new highs are set in the individual indexes and how fast they are set. As I stated earlier, there will be some new highs, but do not believe at this time (mid-term of 30 days) that most of the indexes will set new highs, which will also indicate the top. Most only consider 2 trends, being an up-trend or down trend. I use a 3rd category which is a range-trading trend, and I believe that we are now in a range-trading trend with the range at 8750-9300 on the DOW, give or take 100 points since such is in the early stages. I do feel that in the near future, as soon as mid-MAY we may see a bigger drop, but that is not certain at this time. It may just take a few more cycles in the range. Unless the range is broken substantially say by the DOW hitting 9400-9500 I will stay with this analysis of range-trading. I see 9200 being a tough resistance to break, and if it is not broken prior to mid-MAY, it will be another signal of a interim top. Lets say that we do hit 9200 but no higher, and similar for most of the other indexes, then we would be forming a DOUBLE TOP over a one month time period. That would be a major technical indication that we are at the top and that the bigger pullback could start. Also keep in mind that we could also have a triple to quadruple top, so the bigger drop may not occur immediately after the double top. I feel a mistake that many are making is looking for the big drop, which I did also. My short term technicals indicated a CLASS BUY to GO long on TUE, but I did not. Bill, >>> The Williams A/D, fairly reliable for calling the turns, should go positive today if the market continues it's up-move which I expect. With past as prologue, Monday could get hairy with another strong sell-off <<< I agree that there should be another dip coming, and if the NAPM numbers are good and we are up strong again today, there is a chance that we could see a sell-off on MONDAY, but it should not take us too low but good enough for an opportunity to go long on a short-term option play. If the NAPM numbers are bad it could happen today. Seeya