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Biotech / Medical : Eli Lilly -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: D.J.Smyth who wrote (196)	5/1/1998 1:51:00 PM
From: Anthony Wong	Respond to of 642

Eli Lilly Shares Fall on Concern About Sales of Evista Drug Bloomberg News May 1, 1998, 9:22 a.m. PT Eli Lilly Shares Fall on Concern About Sales of Evista Drug Indianapolis, May 1 (Bloomberg) -- Eli Lilly & Co. shares fell as much as 4 percent amid concern sales of its new drug Evista won't be as strong as expected even though researchers are studying whether the treatment for bone-thinning in women can help prevent two forms of cancer. Lilly shares fell 2 11/16 to 66 7/8 in midday trading after Merrill Lynch analyst Richard Vietor cut his recommendation on the stock to near-term ''accumulate'' from near-term ''buy.'' Earlier, they fell as low as 66 1/4. The Indianapolis-based drugmaker's shares have risen in recent weeks on expectations Evista sales will soar if the drug is found to reduce the risk of breast cancer and cancer of the uterine lining. The company hopes Evista will become a blockbuster, offsetting declines in revenue from Prozac, the Lilly anti-depressant that could lose patent protection in about 2004. It accounts for about 30 percent of Lilly's 1997 revenue of $8.52 billion. ''We believe that investors may be too optimistic in expecting an immediate increase in Evista prescribing'' based on the results of cancer-prevention studies to be released at a medical meeting on May 18 and 19, Vietor said. Lilly shares gained 14 percent over two days last month as hopes about the drug's anti-cancer effects were spurred by the release of an abstract -- or short summary -- of a study to be released at next month's cancer conference in Los Angeles. Vietor cut his estimates for Evista sales in the year 2001 to $1 billion to $1.5 billion, based on the results of discussions that Merrill Lynch has had with physicians who would prescribe the drug. ''While there are favorable events coming up for Lilly over the next few weeks, we feel they are adequately reflected in the stock price,'' Vietor said. Merrill Lynch cut its 12-month target price for Lilly to $80 to $82 a share, he said.

To: D.J.Smyth who wrote (196)	5/1/1998 2:03:00 PM
From: Bull-like	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 642

Darrel and Anthony and all. Exactly! Agree 100%! These Anal-ysts are crooks to begin with. And how can you accumulate without the "buy". It is all mind game they are playing with the small investors, making them to sell so that their own clients can buy them at lower prices. If the Anal-ysts are so good at predicting the market or stock movements, why are they still working right now! As for the competition to Viagara, I think it's going to be very difficult. Sildenfile citrate is a very potent and very, very selective PDE5 inhibitor. Believe me, I know. ICOS may be working on a similar drug. However, working along the same route of PDE5 inhibitors will run into the great risk of patent infringement. From what I heard, the patent of viagra is iron-clad. Choosing a different drug target from a different pathway means years away from clinical trials. I wouldn't bank on them. Zonagen? It's a mess. I won't touch it with 10-foot pole. JMHO. Da bull