To: Buendia who wrote (4636 ) 5/1/1998 1:57:00 PM From: Howard Williams Respond to of 14347
Well Buendia, you asked for knowledgeable comments and/or educated guesses. I'll give some in the latter category. All of this is based on months of trolling and I'll just summarize my thoughts. 1) Keep in mind that the TX deal, if it happens, will license RNTK's technology for converting gasified refinery bottoms into, hopefully, more worthwhile products than they are currently. TX would be able to install RNTK F-T units in their refineries and market gasifier/F-T combos to other refineries. 2) All other RNTK patented GTL applications remain the property of RNTK for licensing/partnering with anyone else they can. 3) I have no clue regarding what the TX deal involves financially but as a minimum, one would expect an up-front fee and then royalties based on production from the F-T units, both at TX and at other refineries TX might peddle the gasifier/F-T combos to. 4) In the near term, again assuming the deal goes through, it would seem logical for TX to build some form of demo or prototype gasifier/F-T combo and prove the design/technology. This could take on the order of a year, more or less, to get it up and running. This would provide the design and performance data base required to proceed with more installations and sales of production units. NOTE: This is likely to mean (because of installation costs/complexities) that RNTK F-T units will be producing revenue for RNTK before, for example, an SLHO unit sends product royalty dollars to SLHO. 5) The meaningful revenue stream to RNTK is out at least a year or two, BUT..........if/when the deal gets signed, everyone will be able to see the stream coming and experts in the industry will be able to predict its magnitude with reasonable accuracy. My non-expert opinion is that it'll support a per-share price for RNTK well above its current level. I'm sure others will chip in their views too. Buenos dias! H.W.