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Technology Stocks : Apple Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Phillip C. Lee who wrote (12466)	5/1/1998 1:50:00 PM
From: Eric Yang	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 213177

From the historical data, the difference between Q2, '97 and Q3, '97, there is an increase of 136m in Q3, 97. If I assume the difference of of Q2 and Q3 in '97 and '98 is the same, then Q3, '98 should be 1613m (1587m+136m). The result of Q3, '98 is not taking into account on cloners' shares in '97 and the general increase of totalpc sales (increase by about 13%). If the overall margin is 24%, and tax, interest earned are the same as yours, the final enaring result is about 107m for Q3. Well, it may be too high to be believed, butthe data of each item is realistic with good rationales. Phil,if you want to do it that way then the proper calculation for Q3 would be 1405m (Q2 98) + 136m = 1541m. You were using 1587m which was the revenue for Q1 98. But I wouldn't count on historical "trend" to be responsible for increasing our revenue this quarter. I did some calculations a few weeks ago...historically (over the last 5 years) there is no significant trend of increase or drop going from Q2 to Q3. The average change was a small gain of 0.6%. Certainly not significant compare to the affect of random variation. This makes product introduction the dominant factor in determining revenue. In Q3 97 Apple introduced the 8600 and 9600. I think that was responsible for much of the increase in both revenue and unit shipment from Q2 97. If WallStreet comes through for us this quarter, we should see an increase in revenue. Otherwise I don't think there is a significant up trend going from Q2-Q3. I'll post an updated spreadsheet with some of these new data in a week or two. Eric